Oxford study proves heat pumps triumph over fossil fuels in the cold::Published Monday in the scientific journal Joule, the research found that heat pumps are two to three times more efficient than their oil and gas counterparts, specifically in temperatures ranging from 10 C to -20 C.
The Oxford study is really good. But I can’t say the same about this article.
A COP of ~2 is not great for a heat pump, calling this a triumph is really weird. But from a journalist saying that a COP above 1 means the heat pump “creates energy”, I am not sure I should have expected more.
But what’s great is that this COP of 2, while bad, is not catastrophic. That’s still in territory where gas boilers are more cost efficient that a heat pump, but unless you are living in a place that is consistently under -10C for several months, then a heat pump has overall lower running costs than a gas boiler. And you are starting to hit pretty northern territories with this.
What’s important is also to be able to store heat during the day so that the heat pump runs at its most efficient time. But that can unfortunately coincide with the higher consumption time, so the timing needs to be adjusted properly to avoid using it during consumption peaks.
a journalist saying that a COP above 1 means the heat pump “creates energy”
But what’s great is that this COP of 2, while bad, is not catastrophic. That’s still in territory where gas boilers are more cost efficient that a heat pump, but unless you are living in a place that is consistently under -10C for several months, then a heat pump has overall lower running costs than a gas boiler. And you are starting to hit pretty northern territories with this.
I actually have a hybrid furnace/heat pump system, and I live in southern Ontario, Canada. The furnace is the auxiliary heat source and it only kicks in when the outdoor temp is below -6C. I’ve only had this system through one winter so far, but I think I could count the number of days the furnace ran without running out of fingers. My electricity bill went up some of course, but my winter gas bill went down a lot.
Edit to add: I wasn’t shopping for a hybrid system in particular, but I got this upgrade through the Canada Greener Homes Grant and there were limitations on which units qualified for rebates. For my install (forced-air with existing duct-work), the hybrid systems were the ones that qualified.
I’m a 4th year AC/R mechanic born and raise in Southern Ontario, currently in BC.
You mebtioned your hydro was up but gas was down. Out of curiosity, can you tell me how your total cost of heating changed before/after your first winter with your heatpump? Did you end up saving money?
Was there any specifig brand/seer rating restriction with the GHGrant? I just applied and will be going this route, but I don’t want to be paying $15000 for a specific brand or something if I can get similiar equipment that might not be on a list.
Was there any specifig brand/seer rating restriction with the GHGrant?
It’s more complicated than that. The major components of the system all have to be qualified for the rebate, down to the component model numbers. There’s a lookup tool to see which model numbers qualify. For a hybrid setup like mine, there are three parts:
- Outside model number: this is the actual heat pump component that gets installed outside
- Inside model number: this is the condenser coil that gets installed on top of the furnace
- Furnace model number: this is the model number of the furnace itself
A ductless system would only have two part numbers involved, the outside heat pump unit and the inside wall unit (though a ductless install can have multiple inside units in multiple rooms). No furnace for a ductless system of course. Edit to add: and all of the major components you get have to be certified with each other by the GH program. They don’t want you mixing and matching.
Every HVAC company I talked to was pretty knowledgeable about the GH program, so if you tell them you’re an applicant then they should put together a quote that qualifies. Multiple HVAC reps advised me to make sure that all rebate-covered part numbers were listed clearly on the invoice. Apparently if that info is missing it can derail the rebate until the invoice is updated with full info.
That’s a useful tool, thanks for linking that. How much did your hybrid system end up costing?
The total install was $12k. I also did another 1k in retrofits under the Greener Homes program, but I did the Greener Homes loan as well. I had to outlay the $13k up front, but then I got all of that back in a 10-year, 0% interest loan, plus $5600 in rebates on top ($5k for the heat pump, $600 for the furnace). The loan processing company debits my account $110 a month, which is low enough that it doesn’t really sting.
I debated doing solar as well, since the Greener Homes loan goes up to $40k. Solar would gave easily soaked up the remaining $25k available in the loan. My roof isn’t ideal for solar though, and I didn’t want to triple the loan’s monthly payments for a solar install that wouldn’t have paid for itself over time.
TY. I’m considering solar as I picked up 2 pallets of panels for our farm, and I don’t need all of them there. I assume there’s all sort of permit issues in the city for that though, so I might just skip it.
Even the study could have used some better clarification on geothermal HVACs, which is the direction we should all be heading towards:
Ground-source heat pumps typically provide a very high level of efficiency, even during cold weather. The reason is that soil temperature does not change significantly between seasons, resulting in a higher—and more constan—COP. In addition, ground-source heat pumps do not need to expend energy on defrosting.
This commentary focuses on the performance of air-source heat pumps in mild European winters with average January temperatures above −10°C. We refer to these heating conditions as “mild cold climates”, whereas those with average temperatures below −10°C in the coldest month are designated “extreme cold climates”.
No, why?! Gimme the COP on geothermal. Google tells me it’s 3 to 5, but I would have liked a better source.
Regardless, while I understand that we should spread out our solutions, I don’t understand why we’re not talking more about geothermal HVAC systems. Household solar is all the rage, but my gas company is still charging me $25 a month just to have the gas on, never mind the winter costs.
If we’re talking about $5K a hole to dig for geothermal, that seems like a hell of a lot more cost-effective solution than either gas-based HVACs, or these air-based heat pumps. If it’s an area with only mild winters, you probably only need the one hole, which will last for 100 years at least. At most, we’re talking about 3-4 holes for a large house in Canada, and that’s going to pay for itself in 10-15 years.
Geothermal has advantages, but air source is getting so good that it’s really becoming a niche.
Spending $5K on insulation or heat recovery ventilation will be more effective than spending it on a hole.
I saw an awesome home refurbishment in Montreal, they just went all-in on insulation. The heating was just done with a 500W resistive heating coil, just for the coldest days. They didn’t even have a heat pump, except for the heat pump boiler. The heat recovery ventilation did the rest.
What if you already have good insulation? It’s already well-known that old houses have shit insulation, so of course it’s worth investing money into that if you already need it. But, even heating a new house can be expensive.
If you have good insulation then the weakest link is usually heat lost through ventilation, or an inefficient heating system.
Ground source heat pumps have their place, but it’s really a niche. It is possible to cheaply heat a home without them.
What is HRV? I thought it meant a ground loop heat exchanger. I’ve heard about it in the passivhaus model but don’t understand it.
Houses need fresh air and need to expel dirty air.
The dirty air is warm, while the outside fresh air is cold. With heat recovery ventilation, the heat is transferred into the incoming air and the exhaust air becomes cold. This warms up the air in a very efficient manner.
It can also be combined with a heat pump to extract even more heat out of the exhaust.
Heat pumps are A/C in reverse. It makes total sense instead of using fire to heat air.
brb putting in my window unit from the outside
You think you are being a smartass but that’s exactly what heat pumps do. The only functionality difference between an AC unit and a heat pump is a reversing valve.
But without a reversing valve you could put your AC unit in backwards and heat your house in the winter.
The whole premise of an AC unit is to take the heat from inside the house and put it outside, leaving you with cooler air inside.
So in the winter a heat pump simply reverses the flow of the freon and moves the heat from outside to inside. Yes. You are “cooling the whole neighborhood” when you run a heat pump.
I wish it was standard to be able to do both. My heat pump is unreal efficient and cheap and great but I’d love a cool breeze every now and then.
It definitely can. If yours can’t then it’s likely just the thermostat wired wrong.
It’s underfloor heating, the units that do both are more expensive so there must be something different.
Ah yeah that’s a different story then. However I’ve never heard of in-floor cooling before. I wonder how effective it would be since heat rises? I think you’d just have a cool floor and hot muggy air. Also the floor would condense water constantly so your floor would be slippery and if you have carpet it would be wet / damp constantly.
You’d need to collect the condensate, but that would actually work quite well.
WELL FUCKING OBVI-
Oh right, I forgot some people are really pulling for this fossil fuel think to pull through.
They’re only two to three times more efficient if they aren’t frozen solid. Don’t know how it works in Canada, but my mini-split heat pump can’t handle a week of 10F let alone -20 C - sure it will put out some heat, but it absolutely needs to be supplemented with my wood stove. And I live in the South. Maybe there’s some new high tech heat pumps that cost a fortune and don’t freeze over in the insane temps of the great white north? EDIT: hey, folks, how about actually responding instead of downvoting me? If I don’t have a clue, please enlighten me. Fuckers.
Your mini-split isn’t designed to function as a heat pump at low temperature.
In places like Sweden, they also use heatpumps that are designed for those conditions.
In other news, don’t drive in a Swedish winter with summer tires.
Excellent. Now I know that there are different classes of heat pump. Mine is not for prolonged crazy-low temps, others are. Thank you.
Indeed, but yours is probably cheaper and more effective at cooling when it’s hot and humid out.
For people up north, they will buy a “cold climate air source heat pump”. In temperate regions, an “air source heat pump” will suffice, while down south you will buy an “A/C with a heating mode” (also called reversible A/C).
And it’s not just about whether the coils can defrost. The whole machinery and refrigerant are different to optimize under those conditions. A cold climate heat pump has a setup that is more similar to a freezer than it is to an A/C.
Sorry about the downvotes. People need to re-learn internet etiquette.
This is the most informative answer yet. Thanks.
Thanks for spreading correct knowledge, as someone who works for a manufacturer of heat pumps it’s refreshing
Yes, there are cold weather heat pumps that can thaw the coils to keep operating. There is a point where they just can’t continue to operate.
When I design a heat pump system in cold climates, I always include a secondary hear source that kicks in if the heat pump gets overwhelmed. Might be a gas section in a furnace. Might be an electric heater in a fan coil. Might be electric baseboards or wall heaters.
Theres different technology but there are some that can function to -32° F and they often have a feature that allows them to detect when theyre frozen up and defrost and then automatically switch back to heating
Mine has a defrost cycle but it doesn’t work very well. But then again, it’s use case is primarily AC - it only gets frigid temps in my area every couple years. EDIT: yes, downvote me for stating my own personal experience, asshats.
Honestly it sounds like your unit may need to be serviced.
This comment section is a trip. Any time anyone is like “I have reservations about my own heat pump” and people are just responding with downvotes and “no”
I mean, it’s fine to have issues with your own unit. The only issue I personally take is when people (not this individual to be clear) use those issues as a counter argument. It’s like saying “my air conditioner has a freon leak and freezes up every year, so air conditioners are terrible in general.”
I had no idea sharing my experience would be interpreted as a clarion call to fuck all heat pumps straight to hell forever.
I explicitly said no you, ya silly kangaroo.
I think it’s an issue that people are passionate about and the “discussion” just turns into some kind of political shouting match.
Like, it’s actually been settled for quite some time: MOVING heat is more efficient than generating it or absorbing it through phase transitions. This study is just one more on a long parade saying the same thing.
What features and installation considerations exist for different climates? Do some manufacturers specialize in systems that excel in different circumstances?
I’d be surprised if they didn’t. I’d be really interested in hearing who the premiere manufacturers are who design systems intended for use in Northern Canada. I’d be interested in who makes best systems for use in Phoenix. I can’t imagine the same system is ideal for both places.
That’s an interesting conversation to have. “Mine doesn’t work good” “yes it does, fuck you” is tedious.
Right but efficiency doesn’t mean it’s better. Electric heat has always been 100% efficient, but that has not made it the most cost effective nor the best solution over far less efficient means of generating heat either. Efficiency isn’t the only factor. The debates and critisms here are valid from what I’ve seen.
Personally, I’m not sold on them… maybe if I lived someplace warmer but living in Wisconsin, they are not for me. I’ve also seen that they require a lot more maintenence and are much less resilient compared to furnaces and central air units. I’ve watched plenty of installation and repair videos on them. Even the HVAC guys have issues with them in these terms.
The crazy thing is I even left it open ended with a question mark, inviting people to enlighten me. And what I got is precisely what I wanted, along with a ton of downvotes like I was an ideologue or something. I’m an ideologue about some things, heat pumps not being one of them. Regardless, now I know that there are, in fact, heat pumps that are designed to work much better in cold climates than the one I have, and that there are plenty of cold-climate folks who find the performance of the heat pump to be sub-par in extra cold weather, requiring supplementary heat.
A lot of people also don’t understand that a heat pump is still heating your home, even though the air it blows might be a bit lower than your body temperature, so it feels “cool.” When that happens people assume it has stopped working and switch to aux heat. This is one of the major reasons people insist that heat pumps don’t work in the cold, even though they still have plenty of capacity margin to heat the dwelling.
My old system was actually set up so that it would pulse the electric aux heater every few minutes or so to help prevent this “drafty” feeling, and to extend the time between defrost cycles.
Many parts of Canada will regularly see colder than -40F, so I can sympathize easily with a view that solely relying on them might not be safe in that environment.
Tbf, most Canadians don’t live in those areas. Places like Toronto/Montreal/Vancouver rarely get that cold.
Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg
As a Canadian who doesn’t live in the GTA it drives me nuts when people dismiss the rest of Canada as some kind of statistical outlier undeserving of acknowledgement.
Which would account for 5-10% of the Canadian population. Just the three metros I mentioned would account for 35% of Canadians. The record low for the coldest of those cities (Montreal) is -36F, but the average low in January is 7F.
70% of Canadians live south of the 49th parallel (the northernmost point of the Continental US) and 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border.
Why is it such a controversial thought to merely include and acknowledge the rest of Canada, rather than discounting them outright?
In case you’re wondering here the divide comes from: it’s this, and it’s you.
All Canadians matter, every Canadian experience is valid, and no Canadian is any less of a Canadian than any other. Erasure of Canadian experience outside of the GTA is an elitist and divisive attitude and serves ONLY to create friction where there need be none.
As soon as you erase a group from the whole, it’s INEVITABLE that they’ll seek to find their own independent identity. Considering your proximity to Quebec this shouldn’t be a foreign concept. Just feel free to extend the inclusive attitude west as well as east. It costs nothing to be inclusive of your fellow countrymen.
Because your comment suggests that heat pumps can’t work in Canada. It’s like an American dismissing heat pumps because Alaska is part of the US. For at least 70% (if not more like 90%) of Canadians, heat pumps work just fine. Obviously, if you are in the part of Canada that gets consistently below -40 degrees, don’t get a heat pump.
Also, I’m not from Toronto or Canadian so I’m not sure all that talk about elitism applies to me. I’m from a small city in the US where I experience weather similar to most Canadians.
You used two temp scales in the same sentence
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You asked, you got it.
Educated adults know not to do that, and now you’re educated. Good luck out there
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Try harder. It’s not that you’re audience doesn’t know the scales, you just wrote poorly.
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Yep, a poor one.
Good effort!
Mind me asking what yours cost?
Just got a Toshiba unit installed in Norway and it was $3500.
Built in de froster.Price might be what makes yours strugle in colder temps.
Mine has Toshiba guts. I don’t know what I paid for it - now it appears to be selling for $1100. Mine defrosts but its defrost cycle just turns on AC for a bit instead of heat. Edit: Mitsubishi guts.
I reckon that’s your main issue.
You’d need a model designed for a colder climate.Maybe for your next one!
Man they pitchfork mob came out in full force for this one. I also live in the south and during the freeze of 2021 it was a struggle for it to deal with those low temps.
That’s precisely the freeze that led me to experience the inability of my Senville mini-split heat pump to keep up. So glad I had a wood stove. Even then, my shower drain trap froze solid. I was living in an “insulated” yurt at the time - good floor insulation, and somewhat okay wall/ceiling insualtion.
My attic insulation needs work. I swear I’m gonna get that sorted this year now that the heat has (hopefully) calmed down.
We probably live in the same neighborhood or something. NC here.
Nope. hollars from tx
Oh Jesus. I’m sorry on so many levels. Unless you’re gung ho Texan. Then I don’t know what to say except enjoy watering your foundation.
Your mini split probably doesn’t have a defrost function. This would all be specified in the users manual.
Oh it does, it’s just that it the defrost cycle in 15F gets off just enough ice for it to barely work, and this was when it was brand-new and verified to be working properly. I now understand that it is just not designed for ultra-cold weather, and that some are better suited for such demands.
That does kind of imply it could need a recharge. These cheaper units don’t actually have active monitoring for ice buildup - they just do it on a schedule based on temperature (and sometimes humidity). If you are getting ice buildup, it’s either outside the rated performance envelope, or it is not functioning as intended.
I think this really highlights the crux of the issue, which is just that the “tribal knowledge” of how to operate the equipment isn’t there and it’s something that education would probably help.
Like, many people’s fathers have probably shown them how to relight the pilot lights on their furnaces and hot water heaters. And if not, the “handy person” on your block would know.
Understanding how to own and operate heat pumps effectively might not be as second nature.
Understanding how to validate the extreme weather functionality of your heating system is super important. Knowing the difference between “normal” and “something is fucked up”… especially before an extreme weather event is pretty important. I’m pretty handy, but absolutely nobody in my area runs heat pumps residentially…
… but that’s probably just because of a lack of uptake rather than a real economic reason. Solar is exploding in my area as a result of increasing power costs and a great environment for it.
As it’s adopted and as people learn how to use, maintain and troubleshoot them I expect problems like that will become more sparse.
I don’t know that we really needed a study for this. You can find the COP vs temp vs capacity curves for every heat pump out there. This will tell you exactly how many BTUs of heat the pump will produce given a watt of electricity input. I guess they were just validating that the curves were accurate?
create energy
Ummm… that’s not how it works.
They actually added a correction at the end for that
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You might not be totally out of luck:
- More modern units do pretty well down to -20f.
- Ground-source systems don’t care about air temps (but are more expensive)
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I don’t think Siberia counts as a place where people want to live.
Yowsa! That’s cold.
That said, ground-source systems have been used to good effect in climates like that! But, of course, do what’s right for you 🙂
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A/C guy who’s the son of an A/C guy here. Heat pumps lose efficiency the colder it gets. I wouldn’t bother with one if you’re in a northern climate. Lower midwest, you might be able to save money with a heat pump over natural gas, but it will depend heavily on the cost of the respective energy. For me, in the central US, we have great prices on gas and somewhat crappy prices on electricity (vs most surrounding regions) and it’s definitely cheaper for me to stick with gas heat.
So this is exactly what the article is about and up to -4 f heat pumps are more efficient.
If your the son of an hvac guy maybe your information is based on older installed units. I had a heat pump installed in my fathers home in the northeast ( non coastal) and I was shocked it ran well all year. I had heard the some rumor that you had.
Technology advanced and facts change.
Your information is outdated. It is even clearly mentioned in the one-sentence summary in the OP:
Oxford study proves heat pumps triumph over fossil fuels in the cold::Published Monday in the scientific journal Joule, the research found that heat pumps are two to three times more efficient than their oil and gas counterparts, specifically in temperatures ranging from 10 C to -20 C.
That doesn’t say anything about gas prices.
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And the naysayers don’t actually run calculations to see what their true costs might be, they already decided gas is king. A couple of good ol boy type HVAC folks that all say “just get a furnace” is all they need to know, reality be damned.
Well my gas is only 3 times cheaper currently before the Ukraine war it was 6-7 times cheaper so…
This is the correct take for a conventional heat pump. However, there are relatively new geothermal heat pumps that can heat down to -30°C (-22°F) and are much more efficient.
.
But its all irrelevant because the most effective way to keep warm is to continue with global warming. Soon we wont have a cold season to worry about. 😜
I know you’re joking but the reality is we’ll probably get worse cold weather alongside the warmer weather - the weather will be more extreme at either end.
Scary, isn’t it?
Yet there are still people out there denying it.
If you’re on propane, it’s more likely to be cheaper. Particularly over the course of an entire heating season, because they’re more efficient in fall and spring than the coldest part of winter.
But yeah, this study wasn’t looking at cost per therm but just raw COP, which is a pointless metric. It doesn’t even compare the number of watts of heat from burning natural gas in a furnace vs in a modern power plant that supplies a heat pump. Although since we don’t have a carbon tax, that’s only a theoretically interesting comparison.
Heat pumps work fine for most people in the north. Mitsubishi’s cold climate heat pumps supply 85% of their rated heat at -13F. Buffalo is a city known for its winters, and the last time Buffalo’s lowest temperature was below that was 1982. They’re just going to be a more expensive option for most people right now.
My father in law went to a heat pump instead of propane this year. No natural gas where he lives.
But he also dropped 20k on a solar system to power it.
How long would the return on cost savings take for it to pay itself off?
Ditto. At least with gas I’m not paying Alabama Power’s rates.
If you posted that earlier today you would have gotten a spanking for saying anything critical about heat pumps. Or people just don’t like me in particular. Hard to tell.
Not in January in Central New Hampshire.
They work in Sweden… and Canada…
That’s great, but fossil fuels are often available in the event of a power outage, and that can save lives during a winter storm. Availability is just as important as efficiency, and until we can make our power grid more resilient, we need to factor that in.
The vast majority of gas boilers use electronics to function. In a powercut they are also dead.
Now if you’re talking diesel generator back ups, then far enough.
There are tons of non electronic gas heaters. I have one in my basement just for power outages so we can stay alive in the winter if we don’t have power. But I do think for majority of heating and cooling I would love to rip out my central furnace and replace with heat pumps but the cost is too great ATM. I have two heat pumps now, one in my garage and one in my top floor where the furnace could never reach.
There are significant tax credits and rebates to be had: https://www.hvac.com/expert-advice/inflation-reduction-act-heat-pump-rebates/
I have propane heat- a small generator will power the fans while the propane provides the actual heat. The generator wouldn’t be able to handle a whole heat pump though. I do lose power a lot and lost it for 4 days straight last Jan. This situation isn’t without merit.
Even gas stoves won’t work when the power is down, for the same reason.
Heard of a match?
If you want to heat air and move it around you’re gonna want a fan, which will need electricity. My gas heat is no good when the power is out.
Provided the pressure is maintained from the outside, mine would work fine with a match.
Mine had a safety valve, which was unfortunately electronically controlled.
RIP
If it’s just control systems though, they may be able to run off of a UPS for a day or so.
There are fans and pumps as well.
We’re also going to run out of oil in the next 40-45 years, so we should factor that in.
The 2 times (living not with my parents anymore) I had now electric power unplanned was of course when it was cold. However the fancy central heating running on gas was also not working. As the main unit also needed electric power.
So I could still cook my food but that’s was it. No heat. But that being said in my entire life we lost power (including as a kid) maybe 5 times and only for a couple of hours. In 33 years
I now have a heat pump and for cooking induction. So in a power outage I need to grab some camping gear. But I will probably survive for a couple of hours without heat.
But if you have regular power outages you and everybody in your country should probably vote and make your voices heard. If you live in a country where most people can afford heat pumps, the government can afford fixing the power grid.
Yeah, central air requires power to run the fan, but also the thermostat.
If you want to heat your house during a power outage, it takes less power to run your gas furnace than a space heater.
I have a duel fuel system (heat pump + gas furnace) which, while more expensive, is really the best of both worlds.
In a power outage I can plug in a generator and get the furnace running.
If temps drop too low and the heat pump is struggling I can switch to the furnace.
I can choose which to run based on current energy costs.
When looking into heat pumps everyone told me they don’t work well in the northeast or they would be more expensive to run here. I found it really difficult to get an accurate estimate of the cost difference between running a heat pump vs a gas furnace. Ultimately I decided to go dual fuel for flexibility but after comparing my bills before and after I almost wish I’d gone with a hyper heat unit so it could run at lower outdoor temps because the heat pump has turned out to be cheaper but I can’t run it at low temps.
I think HVAC techs in this area are weary of them based on past experience with older units but they really have improved in recent years.
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I wonder who the fuck is downvoting these comments. LOL - “NO FOSSIL FUELS, YOU MUST DIE IN A POWER OUTAGE!”
