- Xi Jinping accused the US of trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, the Financial Times said.
- The Chinese leader made the claim to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, per the FT.
- One expert told BI it’s a sign that China is “genuinely surprised” by the attitude of US officials.
…
For decades, the US has adopted “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the country’s most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacked.
But the mood in Washington, DC, seems to be shifting, with Congress showing itself more “overtly supportive of Taiwan than only a few years ago,” Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider in November.
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“The US has plenty of public figures now talking of Taiwan like it is a new Ukraine, and some even saying it needs to be diplomatically recognized,” Brown added.
Oh no. Xi saw through our dastardly reverse psychology. Now we have no choice but to watch him not invade our ally. How horrific.
And the Russians where also very vocal about not invading Ukraine right up to the moment that they did. So what I’m trying to say is “talk is cheap”.
I have a spare deck of UNO cards, should the US require them for a strategic response.
I don’t think he believes what he says for the reasons hes claiming. I think if he’s really set on not invading it’s because hes seen how poorly its working for Russia. China wants Taiwans economy, you cant get that if Taiwan looks like Ukraine before you even get control.
If Xi is being serious it’s probably because he’s realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means. Weather he has a plan for that remains to be seen.
Given Russia’s performance in Ukraine, Iran firing 5% of its total stockpile at Israel and having almost nothing get through modern American air defense, and China’s own review of military readiness that showed glaring flaws and corruption, any plans China may have had to invade Taiwan should be postponed indefinitely.
Turning local elections in Taiwan in China’s favor in the long term seems like the more viable alternative for reunification.
True, even without reunification (what’s for?), China gets more by economical means than it would ever has via invasion. It’s insane production capacity, belt&road schemes, education and science are a caricature of a suntzian wise guy who wins a war without a battle. Reducing themselves to a war (and probably destroying everything they are jealous of in Taiwan in the process) would be embarassingly stupid. I watch their sabblerattling as a play, but I’m yet to see any benefit from it besides upkeeping the status of those not to fuck with.
My thoughts exactly. Probably tougher than HK but similar playbook, my guess is a slow long term approach would be the most likely to succeed.
So they opposite of HK where they rushed in and fucked the whole thing up so badly they lost any chance of ever convincing Taiwan?
China can’t operate on long time frames, they’re too beholden to the whims of whatever prima donna is chairman.
he’s realizing he needs to take Taiwan through economic and diplomatic, and probably clandestine diplomatic means
Add in psyops programs. They have been a resounding success against UK and the US for Putin.
He’ll take it through political means, by running candidates that support his regime. Then he will put an end to democracy there. Kind of like Hong Kong.
And Russia is able to cart in supplies by road and rail. If anything Ukraine is also showing that supply across a 100+ miles of sea will be nearly impossible. The navy does not have to control the waters, they just need to deny the Chinese access to it and that is much easier.
You show America, Pooh Bear! Pledge to never attack Taiwan! Really show them by recognizing its sovereignty and normalizing trade relations!
I’ve been saying for months that he should reclaim Upper Manchuria or Northern Manchuria. Don’t remember what it was called till Russia invaded in 1901. That would give him the military victory he’s looking for, and it’s not like anyone is gonna complain about Russia being weakened by losing its only warm water Pacific port. It’s currently called Vladivostok
A) You can’t “invade” something you already possess… is how he will spin it when he tries to invade.
B) Didn’t Putin say the same thing about Ukraine?
Hey, that’s the same excuse cops use for committing war crimes on their own citizens.
while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacked.
“You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons,” a reporter said to Mr. Biden. “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”
“Yes,” Mr. Biden answered flatly.
“You are?” the reporter followed up.
“That’s the commitment we made,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-china.html
Sounds more like someone came to their senses but tries to save face…hopefully. You never know if this is just a strategic move to make others believe they won’t attack.
As absurd as it seems sometimes, the One China policy has kept the peace for decades. I wouldn’t toss it out without a very, very good reason.
I mean, to people under 50ish, Taiwan is a stable, functioning democracy with an advanced economy but that didn’t really happen until 1987. It was basically a fascistic military dictatorship prior to that. It’s a much more complicated history than we sometimes acknowledge. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Taiwan_(1945–present)
I’m an elder millennial, I guess, and I was alive but too young to remember Taiwan’s first real elections. I get that the One China policy might feel like a relic of a bygone era since I know it from history books too. But most world leaders are old enough to remember when Taiwan was a dysfunctional, fascistic military dictatorship. It might require another few generations of peace before it’s fully consolidated.
I mean, to put it in perspective, Robocop, Lethal Weapon, and Predator came out in 1987. People old enough to see those movies in theaters remember a different era and likely have a fundamentally different understanding of Taiwan/Mainland relations. Xi, Biden, and Trump are all over 70.
Bro, Trump doesn’t know shit about anything. Xi and Biden though know very well.
Frankly it’s in Xi’s best benefit to not invade Taiwan, because it would cause a collapse of the One China policy. China benefits considerably from the current policy that’s ambiguous on recognizing Taiwan. The moment they invade though, that goes away, and it becomes inevitable that Taiwan gains international recognition as independent – presuming the US helps repel an invasion.
If there’s anything we’ve learned though from the last few years, it’s that seemingly intelligent world leaders can make idiotic decisions that go against their best interest – namely Putin and Ukraine. Xi strikes me as the type of person to keep yesmen like Putin, and that means he could make just as foolish a mistake.
I’m imagining Netanyahu, Xi and Putin having their own IM group where they share these blurbs and react with emojis. “Check out what I’ll publish lol”
Thank goodness.
We need to stop acknowledging the one China policy. China is threatening war against Taiwan, and there should be absolutely zero doubt that we don’t condone Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
EU and other allies should of course not support it either.I mean China can’t really do anything about the autonomous mainland provinces steadfastly refusing to declare independence, even if you can find precedent of a sovereign state kicking out its provinces unilaterally it’d still be a dick move.
What? I have no idea where that came from? The One China policy is about reuniting Taiwan with mainland China.
In principle I don’t mind that China wants Taiwan to reunite with China, as long as they are perfectly peaceful about it, like with Germany and Est Germany.
But what are you talking about?
The one China policy is first and foremost about the principle that there is only one China. Hence the name: That the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are still locked in a civil war, that neither declared independence from the other. There is no “reuniting” because you cannot unite what is not split, they’re still one.
Which is a rather different situation from divided Germany: The East declared independence as a new state, and the West accepted it. The West still considered Eastern citizens who made their way across the border her own citizens, but there was no “you can’t have your own sovereign state” stuff going on, from either side. Upon reunification the East re-introduced its federal states, which then jointly but individually joined the West, leaving the East without territory and people which thus vanished in a puff of how international law defines the concept of a state.
The Mainland could pull an East Germany and declare independence at any time, Taipei would accept it. Some old-guard Kuomintang would gripe but they’d get over it. Taipei declaring independence makes no sense… independence from whom? Imperial China? They won that struggle before the PRC even existed. It’s the PRC which is rebel faction in the civil war, you don’t declare independence from rebels if then you grant them independence and, well, the rebels don’t want independence.
They’re making a “Taiwan is actually China” joke. Referring to the mainland as “provinces that refuse to declare independence”
OK, I missed that completely, but I can see that’s actually quite funny.
The one China policy is just a diplomatic hedge.
Everyone will SAY there is “one China”, but nations can make defense pacts with specific “parts” of China, even in the event of “invasion” from a different part of that same “one China”.
One China is about those mental gymnastics. Buying into “one China” isn’t about supporting the reunification of Taiwan. Never was. It’s the opposite.
Yes, I missed that, that’s quite clever and funny. 😀
Xi taking a page out of the abusive husband playbook, I see.
Whatever keeps his ass out of the sling
Ok. He’s copying putain. We are doomed
This is like Saul Goodman levels of bullshit
This doesn’t mean we should stop deterrence
Well this probably means he’ll invade, so yes.
“US is making me do it”
Now we need a report saying the same for the Russians in Ukraine
