a lil bee 🐝

Reduce your fractions folks

Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.

“cis” isn’t an acronym, FYI. It’s just short for “cisgender” and doesn’t need to be capitalized. No shade intended at all, just wanted to let you know.

The question was centered on politics, so that’s what I addressed. Harris is running a campaign, so she is also centered around politics right now. It sucks but it’s how our world works right now.

So genuinely, how do you expect this to work? Am I supposed to just go upvote every dumb as shit opinion I read on the internet so everyone feels better?

They will be lightly affected by her denouncing some of the protestors (which is separate from supporting Israel and its genocide), yes. Remember that the Jewish voting bloc is also primarily democratic. If your concern is politics in this situation, it’s a very fine line that Dem politicians have to walk here.

Edit: I’m just gonna back out of this thread. I’m not supportive of the genocide, but yall also don’t want to have an actual conversation.

Why would his opinion not be subject to critique from the hundreds of people who use this site? Don’t post if you don’t want your opinions to be scrutinized by the forum you’re posting in.

No, your children have an equal stake to yours. It gives you nothing.

Unless a court kicks it into maximum overdrive, this isn’t getting seen by the election. Your second alternative looks most likely to me right now.

All good, friend. I just think this is possible for us to defeat, even at the ballot box. The American people are powerful when they decide to wield their votes for the actual, true betterment of the country and our democracy. I really think we can do this, together.

They withheld the vote on obama’s nominee in order to get a Republican to install them.

Yup, because they had control of the Senate. They were voted in. I’m not denying that Republicans are immoral, unethical scumbags with the intent to power game the system, but we have no tools to fix that in our current system other than overwhelming it. It only gets worse the longer we wait.

There really aren’t a lot of other options for the citizenry. You can LARP at revolution or whatever, but I’m not volunteering first and I don’t see a lot of others doing so either. I, and a lot of other vulnerable people, are not going to come out on top, so I’ll pass on that solution.

Fact of the matter is, we could have elected Hillary in 2016. Sure, there was Republican meddling and Comey and yada yada, but it was fully within our abilities and we failed. The Supreme Court would look entirely different right now and we would still have medical rights. We did flip the senate, so it was fully in play before and then Mitch would not have been able to block the Garland appointment. Those are concrete outcomes from something that was fully possible for us to prevent. So I’m just not comfortable writing off voting as worthless at this stage, even with the acknowledged difficulties, gerrymandering, etc.

No worries! I’m full of rage on all this nonsense lately too and I’ve been in that same mode. I’m happy to join with you in November and in the meantime to start to fix this nonsense!

Of course there’s a reason? Legislation was passed (the real problem here) and the entire point of the court is to evaluate legislation against our constitution. I agree with every single statement in your last paragraph, but you have to point the blame at the correct place. SCOTUS taking this up is completely legitimate and falls entirely within their role in our government.

The state legislators are infringing on private citizens and their medical care. That’s the crime here. Even then, it’s important to understand that nothing is off limits to legislators. Even our core rights can be changed by a supermajority in the national congress. Power decides what rights get protected in a society. That’s been the recurrent tale of history for all time. We are beyond fortunate to have a sliver of that power and we are failing to use it to stomp these legislators into the dust. That’s the crime here, not SCOTUS taking up a case that falls entirely under its jurisdiction and mandate.

Well, TIL! Darn famous computer scientists sharing last names. This Conway is still an icon.

I cite Conway’s Law (and it’s reverse corollary) multiple times a week. I’m sorry to hear this, but her contributions were many and 85 is not a bad run. I hope she was happy and fulfilled, in the end.

… or don’t introspect, blame the voters, and lose forever. It could not matter less what is true, it’s only what the populace believes. That’s politics. If our ideology can’t stand up to this, it must adjust or it deserves to fail.

I agree with you, and yet… It’s winning them elections. We can be upset about it all we want, but it’s increasingly clear that bigotry and xenophobia are winning arguments in this era. We’re fucked if we don’t adjust. I’m not proposing we abandon migrants, but the one thing myself and the person you replied to likely agree on is that the left is increasingly losing sight of home and the average citizen, not in terms of rhetoric but in effect. We’re about to lose the EU and possibly lose support for Ukraine, see even more immigration restrictions, and see an empowered global far-right. The voters are telling us they have different priorities, which we need to focus on in a more altruistic way than the right. We have to be introspective here if we ever want to accomplish our goals.

Support? Nah, that’s rare to the point of non-existence. I completely agree with your second sentence and I think people who are not willing to make the concession from the first half because of the second, substituting Hamas for ISIS, are doing themselves and Palestinians a massive disservice. Explanations are not excuses, and the behavior of both Israel and Hamas in the modern era cannot be excused.

I’ve never said that people should ignore any attempt at logic and just focus on their passions, but the modern cult of rationality and stoicism is ironically hugely lacking in self-awareness and rationality.

I’ve never said that people should ignore any attempt at passion and just focus on their logic, but the modern mobs of righteous indignation and fury are ironically hugely lacking in empathy, tolerance (not of intolerance, before that gets tossed at me), and pragmatism.

I agree that we mostly seem to be on the same page, but I really need to stress that I have not asked people to be soulless and I think that’s a mischaracterization of my asking for people to set their passion aside as much as possible as an exercise which is inherently temporary. We’re both just looking for balance here.

Genuine question, does anyone have any better suggestions that can be implemented in a reasonable timeframe? Immigration is a bad economic target for so many reasons, but Americans overwhelmingly view it as a critical issue. When 1 in 5 of your citizens, regardless of party, considers it the most pressing issue right now in an election year and it is the thumping drum of your opponent, you’re going to be under a lot of pressure to act. I don’t want this EO to happen but I kind of have to be willing to say I’m in the vast minority in my country, evidently. This is a social/educational problem to solve first, I think.