Ukrainian forces staged an overnight ambush on a Russian convoy 25 miles inside the international border in Russia’s Kursk province, as the Kremlin declared a federal emergency and said it was transferring extra forces to try to snuff out a four-day incursion that has badly damaged its credibility.
A video circulated by Russian military bloggers showed a destroyed convoy, with bodies just visible inside some trucks, on the E38 east-west highway at Oktyabrskoe, a location far deeper inside Russia than any previously confirmed fighting since Ukraine’s forces crossed the border on Tuesday.
Commentators said the attack, reminiscent of Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops besieging Kyiv in the first weeks of the war, demonstrated an effective hit-and-run strategy, but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
Fucking love this. Think about it:
-
While Russia concentrates defenses in the southern Donetsk region, Ukraine simply pushes forward into Russia itself and grabs easy land. Like squeezing a balloon, the bulge finds the least resistance.
-
It causes domestic unrest and panic.
-
It forces Russia to spread thinner their already-thin resources.
-
It gives Ukraine a bargaining-chip at the negotiating table.
-
It helps nullify net-territorial gains made by Russia elsewhere.
-
It gives Ukrainian forces a boost of morale.
- Putin makes a big deal out of how fighting in Ukraine is by volunteers and contained so that “regular russians” are safe. This fight goes on in areas defended by conscripted soldiers, breaking that safety layer.
If the aggression against Ukraine is maintained by Russian volunteer forces and Russia has to relocate them now, it means that there are no conscripts to use.
Using conscripts pretty much means that Putin admits that it never was a special military operation with 3-4 days to take Kiev. It pretty much sends signals to the Russian people that he is far from being in control and able to contain the situation.
Using conscripts pretty much means that Putin admits that it never was a special military operation with 3-4 days to take Kiev.
The fact that it’s almost 900 days later also suggests this.
Putin makes a big deal out of how fighting in Ukraine is by volunteers
How true even is that? My understanding is that they’ve been throwing conscripts at the front the entire war.
Mobilized troops, not the same as conscripts by Russian law. Mobilized troops can be any age but are usually older with prior military service (see below). Most of them have jobs and part of the workforce proper, don’t live with their parents except incases of poverty or family health issues. IIRC the last mobilization Russia did, the average age was 28 but that number lilely isn’t accurate. Mobilizations are also targetted to minorities and very rural regions of Russia away from Moscow and St Petersburg.
Conscripts on the other hand, are specifically 18-20 year olds with mandatory military service after high school. Almost all of them lived with their parents before military service and usually stay in close touch with families by tradition. In the 80s conscripts were used in the war in Afghanistan, and high percentage of casualties were these 18-20 year olds from densely populated areas, which caused such a public backlash even the Soviet Union was forced pull put from the war and as result of that Russia sees it as a taboo for conscripts to be used for anything but national defense and training during peace time, though in the case of formal declaration of war they would certainly be used on the fronts. Some people have gone as far as to say there is an actual law about that but I honestly don’t know of thats true or just culturual taboo (and given how Russia operates a cultural taboo is much stronger than any law.)
Kremlin and specifically Putin have gone out of their way to define the entire Ukraine War as a special military operation and not a war as a means of appeasing the citizens they care about (urban Russians) and using volunteer/professional soldiers and mobilized minorities instead. Now that Russian soil is in danger, its possible we’ll see conscripts being relocated to defend those fronts, but even that is sketchy because of the taboo along with it being an open secret that conscript forces have terrible abbreviated training meant more to be a primer for further training at a later date rather than a set of skills that will keep them alive and make them efficient soldiers in the army. Most of them probably never actually fired a weapon more than once or twice, so against a battlehardenrd army like Ukraine those conscripts would get outmaneuvered and likely mowed down, hence why we’ve seen so many Russian units on the defensive lines surrender after first contact. They are poorly trained, have now experience, and their corrupt chain of command probably was awol or ran away the second they heard Ukrainians were approaching their lines, leaving a bunch of 18-20 year olds doing mandatory service and substandard gear being told to defense against a veteran force with NATO supplied gear and armored vehicles. All the smart ones, all the cowards and anyone else left over not brainwashed enough to want to die for the motherland surrendered in droves once shots got fired.z
It also allows Ukraine to continue playing defensively now that they have the territory which has shown to be a good strategy so far for bleeding Russia of troops and equipment.
But for how long…
-
My, how the fucking turn tables
that has badly damaged its credibility.
People should REALLY stop using that word when they mean perceived military strength!
Military strength isn’t credibility and the Russian government isn’t credible no matter how well or how badly its army of fascists and forced conscripts is performing.
They also have very little perceived military strength at this point, right? Apart from their nukes I guess.
Yeah, and even Putin isn’t actually crazy enough to do anything with those but THREATENING to use them.
but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
That’s the entire point. Force the Russians to over commit. Then pull back. Depending on how involved the Ukrainians want the area to be they might stick to raiding. Or they could be digging in hard behind the raiding right now, making ready to make the Russians pay dearly for every inch. But either way they know it’s temporary.
Unless the Russians fuck it up so badly the Ukrainians don’t need to leave.
Well if the Russian playbook is the same, they will have to raze their own villages to get them back.
Even if they now activate conscripts to do this, the casualty rate will be high and involve people from all over Russia. So the Russian public will be made aware of the costs.
And Ukranians can do what they do on the eastern front, pull back in defensive manner and concede ground in a controlled manner. Forcing the Russians to remain on the offensive when they actually cannot anymore.
I personally think the Russians are overcommitted already, cannibalizing everything everywhere. We will now see what they can muster from what is left.
Well we know they have internal reserves because they have troops elsewhere on the border with NATO and the capital guard they always keep back in case of a wild Wagner.
What is certain is russia can no longer ignore their lightly defended border drawing resources from their occupation.
it’s sounds almost like a Finnish guerrilla ”motti-tactic” which was used in Winter War against soviets. Hit and run and they even didnt know what hit them. In motti tactic you hit a single road convoy/unit in a position where they can’t escape. Very effective in forest area roads.
Wolverines!
If only there was a way to stop this
use its armoured vehicles to head towards Russian positions and use a third of them to tie down the defenders while the rest were “bypassing it, entering nearby settlements and setting up ambushes”
The mythical Deep Battle strategy actually being used?
The Guardian - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for The Guardian:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: Medium - Factual Reporting: Mixed - United Kingdom
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
Medium? It’s a British broadsheet, they actually have standards. Most of them are credible (unlike the tabloids like the Mail or the Scum).
