I’m happy to hear that I was helpful. I’m not any sort of expert, but a lot of this is basic state building. Add to that that the Palestinians actually have pretty high rates of education, already have access to a stable currency, and a regional power that they’re already integrated with, they really have a leg up on most other countries starting out. The main sticking points are leadership, radicalization, and external forces like the IRGC backing terrorist groups.
As time goes on I really see this winding down one way or another in a couple decades. In 1948 basically the entire Arab world supported the Palestinians both directly and indirectly against Israel. Now Egypt and Jordan both have peace treaties and increasing economic ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia is coming onboard and the UAE and Bahrain already signed the Abraham accords. Palestinian maximalist goals look more and more unreasonable. Hamas hoped that their attack would trigger a whole regional war against Israel. It didn’t, just IRGC proxies joined in. It didn’t even put a stop to Saudi normalization, just delayed it a bit.
For the Israel side of it, there is more international pressure than ever to resolve this. The only hard dealbreaker IMO is keeping Hamas around in power. I just don’t see any other way that has historically worked to remove a fascist regime than force. See the Whispered in Gaza series for what life is like under Hamas. Now we just need a good Palestinian leader to actually push building a positive future or Israel may just say screwed it, I’ll do it myself, which would probably include annexation and citizenship.
I’m happy to hear that I was helpful. I’m not any sort of expert, but a lot of this is basic state building. Add to that that the Palestinians actually have pretty high rates of education, already have access to a stable currency, and a regional power that they’re already integrated with, they really have a leg up on most other countries starting out. The main sticking points are leadership, radicalization, and external forces like the IRGC backing terrorist groups.
As time goes on I really see this winding down one way or another in a couple decades. In 1948 basically the entire Arab world supported the Palestinians both directly and indirectly against Israel. Now Egypt and Jordan both have peace treaties and increasing economic ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia is coming onboard and the UAE and Bahrain already signed the Abraham accords. Palestinian maximalist goals look more and more unreasonable. Hamas hoped that their attack would trigger a whole regional war against Israel. It didn’t, just IRGC proxies joined in. It didn’t even put a stop to Saudi normalization, just delayed it a bit.
For the Israel side of it, there is more international pressure than ever to resolve this. The only hard dealbreaker IMO is keeping Hamas around in power. I just don’t see any other way that has historically worked to remove a fascist regime than force. See the Whispered in Gaza series for what life is like under Hamas. Now we just need a good Palestinian leader to actually push building a positive future or Israel may just say screwed it, I’ll do it myself, which would probably include annexation and citizenship.