When the AI bubble pops, what will remain? Cheap GPUs at firesale prices, skilled applied statisticians looking for work, and open source models that already do impressive things, but will grow far more impressive after being optimized:
When the AI bubble pops, what will remain? Cheap GPUs at firesale prices, skilled applied statisticians looking for work, and open source models that already do impressive things, but will grow far more impressive after being optimized:
I can strongly recommend the arricle from the OP blog post about marker dynamics and use of what is essentially accounting fraud by major companies involved in AI:
Lifespan of AI Chips: The $300 Billion Question
I am looking forward to reading the research paper they are working on.
While the author takes a relatively neutral tone, the analysis is brutal in its portrayal of major market players (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google); they come of more as oligopolists who are happy to engage in what is de facto in an attempt to undermine true market competition.
OP’s post is largely right, but it doesn’t require that link to be true. Also, whether these $3m+ systems are warrantied is a relevant question. It’s hard to know exact lifespan from one person saying their gpu failed quickly. Paper still stands well.
Because of power constraints, I’d expect they replace GPUs every 2 years with new generations, and so there will be big write offs.
A 6 year depreciation schedule seems unrealistically long for a GPU.
Even in gaming terms (I know this is completely different use case), a 2080S from 2019, a high end SKU, would struggle with many modern games at 1440p and higher. A profession streamer would be unlikely to use a 2080S.
Then there is the question of incentives. An objective look at American technology and VC suggests they are far closer to criminal organizations than their treatment by media and US institutions would imply. They very much can be expected to engage in what is essentially accounting fraud.