the thing with brazil is that lula sort of got out of the ropes when he had no alternative but to defend his own government against an attack by the fascist and the traditional right wing opposition (the so called centrão, which has got nothing of center politics). he had some boost which allowed to defeat the proposal to pardon the 2023 putschists and approve the income tax exemption for those earning less than 12,200 usd per month. we’ll see the next months, but so far he got a boost and will likely win 2026, but more out of inertia from the opposition who doesn’t really know what to do with bolsonaro jailed, than because he’s doing a really good job (it isn’t).