I can’t wait for the AI bubble to burst.
We are all waiting. If they don’t come up with proven revenue opportunities in the next ~18 months, it’s going to be difficult to justify the astronomical capex spend.
This podcasting bro is NOT chasing revenue (yet).
He wants power.
He wants to collect 11-12 figure sums of venture capital and then built things that let him rule the world.
And afterwards, maybe revenue.
Mah, won’t happen like this. It was similar with Facebook 10 years ago and look at where it is now.
What does this even mean?
I’ve heard someone call it billionaire brain rot. I think at some point you end up with so much money and not enough people telling you no, that it literally changes your brain.
Seems likely.
Imagine never hearing the word “No.” as a complete sentence ever again in your life.
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I think it’s also likely that it’s very hard to amass billions unless you already have some sort of brain rot.
He is an empty husk of a man who has completed his transformation into a pure PR machine
His involvement in the infamous WorldCoin provides useful insight into his character.
An oligarch and a degenerate (outside the US many oligarchs have a more or less sober understanding of who they are, although degeneracy among oligarchs is a global issue).
Lol
Open AI has a projected revenue of 3 Billion this year.
It is currently projected to burn 8 Billion on training costs this year.
Now it needs 5 Gigawatt data centers worth over 100 Billion.
And new fabs worth 7 Trillion to supply all the chips.I get that it’s trying to dominate a new market but that’s ludicrous. And even with everything so far they haven’t really pulled far ahead of competing models like Claude and Gemini who are also training like crazy.
There is no market, or not much of one. This whole thing is a huge speculative bubble, a bit like crypto. The core idea of crypto long term make some sense but the speculative value does not. The core idea of LLMs (we are no where near true AI) makes some sense but it is half baked technology. It hadn’t even reached maturity and enshittification has set in.
OpenAI doesn’t have a realistic business plan. It has a griftet who is riding a wave of nonsense in the tech markets.
No one is making profit because no one has found a truly profitable use with what’s available now. Even places which have potential utility (like healthcare) are dominated by focused companies working in limited scenarios.
IMO it’s even worse than that. At least from what I gather from the AI/Singularity communities I follow. For them, AGI is the end goal - a creative thinking AI capable of deduction far greater than humanity. The company that owns that suddenly has the capability to solve all manner of problems that are slowing down technological advancement. Obviously owning that would be worth trillions.
However it’s really hard to see through the smoke that the Altmans etc. are putting up - how much of it is actual genuine prediction and how much is fairy tales they’re telling to get more investment?
And I’d have a hard time believing it isn’t mostly the latter because while LLMs have made some pretty impressive advancements, they still can’t have specialized discussions about pretty much anything without hallucinating answers. I have a test I use for each new generation of LLMs where I interview them about a book I’m relatively familiar with and even with the newest ChatGPT model, it still makes up a ton of shit, even often contradicting its own answers in that thread, all the while absolutely confident that it’s familiar with the source material.
Honestly, I’ll believe they’re capable of advancing AI when we get an AI that can say ‘I actually am not sure about that, let me do a search…’ or something like that.
yeah, i really hate this. i have shares of multiple tech companies, like nvidia, intel, AMD, TSMC, etc. and because of the AI bubble idk how much they are really worth. the market is all warped and one day a company is doing well, the next day it seems to be in peril. i would like to know how much they would be worth after the bubble bursts, but there is no way to know.
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Bro has just learned about inflation and thinks a deflationary currency is some magical fix, lmao.
“But the breakthrough will come just as soon as the chips no one can make are delivered.”
Probably.
The climate? What climate? Who cares about the climate?
You can buy a lot of Twitters for that money
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It seems that the ~$3.7 billion revenue figure is from this NYT article.
Some interesting background:
Roughly 10 million ChatGPT users pay the company a $20 monthly fee, according to the documents. OpenAI expects to raise that price by $2 by the end of the year, and will aggressively raise it to $44 over the next five years, the documents said.
It will be interesting to see if their predictions turn out to be true. $44 a month seems steep for a LLM, not to mention there will likely be a lot of competition both from cloud LLM providers and local LLM initiatives.
I could maybe see people using it professionally for $44 a month. I don’t see them being successful marketing to the casual, curious, and hobbyists for 3x a streaming subscription.
The day AWS starts a Mistral-as-a-service is when OpenAI dies.
$44 a month. Good luck with that. Google will offer Gemini for free until open AI dies of starvation and they will soon have hard time justifying the $20 for most user.
I also doubt their Apple deal last 5 years, I would be surprised if the control freak company sees it as anything more than a temporary belt because they were caught with their pants down.
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