The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it’s coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It’s the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don’t have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
Hmm… how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups…
You know, I’ll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you’re right, I just don’t see a direct line.
TLDR: Squid, again, you’re arguing my point. I do not support Xi or the attribution of racism when I call him Pooh Bear. That’s offensive…to racists.
I think you might want to read @[email protected] 's original comment to me that i’m responding to.
Ignoring the racism…yes, China has been very clear they don’t wish to use their military
I’m asking them to clarify the point how Pooh Bear is directly racist against the Han people and not just a derogatory term directed squarely at Xi Jinping.
I am fully aware of China’s ethnographic makeup and policies, especially those of a certain Han Dynasty way back when. But here’s the article I posted to them and now I post to you.
Archive link here https://archive.is/kJlQW
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There’s other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-blockade-invasion-us-navy-pacific-fleet-admiral-samuel-paparo-1749139
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
He’s facing internal struggles of looking weak to the military. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-loyal-communist-party-purges-xi-jinping-speech-2024-7?op=1
I mean fuck they just got a command structure. Until the 2000s the generals instructed the soldiers and the soldiers taught the generals.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2018/11/chinas-military-has-no-combat-experience-does-it-matter.html
They can’t even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you’re right on this one, I don’t hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It’s a curse that we live in such interesting times.
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You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
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All nations agree that Taiwan is and always was part of China?
Yes.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
And not a single government, not even Peru’s government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.
Strangely, that’s not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.
Yeah, it’s not actually very ambiguous. It’s more confusing than ambiguous.
If you ask if the government in Taipei is the legitimate government of China, the USA will say no.
If you ask if Taiwan is an independent country, the USA will say no.
But if you ask if Taiwan is part of China, the USA will avoid answering, even though that’s the only option left.
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Explain the comment on racism? Pooh Bear is not anti sino to my knowledge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China
Let me know if that link doesn’t work for you. 🧸😗
deleted by creator
Ah, good. That’s all I needed to hear.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-censors-are-targeting-winnie-the-pooh-china-180964075/
https://www.scmp.com/abacus/culture/article/3028350/china-censors-winnie-pooh-social-media-again-following-plan-scrap
https://chinain5.com/2019/11/06/why-winnie-the-pooh-was-banned-from-the-chinese-internet/comment-page-1/
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
How does Pooh Bear relate to the Han people?
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it’s coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It’s the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don’t have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-china-only-on-ap-f89c20645e69208a416c64d229c072de
Hmm… how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups…
You know, I’ll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you’re right, I just don’t see a direct line.
You still haven’t referenced Pooh Bear. I share your confusion.
Sorry… your issue here is that there is not a direct link between A. A. Milne’s Winnie the Pooh character and a Chinese ethnonationalist state?
TLDR: Squid, again, you’re arguing my point. I do not support Xi or the attribution of racism when I call him Pooh Bear. That’s offensive…to racists.
I think you might want to read @[email protected] 's original comment to me that i’m responding to.
I’m asking them to clarify the point how Pooh Bear is directly racist against the Han people and not just a derogatory term directed squarely at Xi Jinping.
I am fully aware of China’s ethnographic makeup and policies, especially those of a certain Han Dynasty way back when. But here’s the article I posted to them and now I post to you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China