Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds
Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.
Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.
Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
My favorite part was when corporations lied their asses off to the entire world for over 50 years while simultaneously telling is this is all our fault but if we recycled and didn’t use too much water, gas, or electricity we could undo the harm that we were personally responsible for.
I’m rather fond of the part where they admitted to those lies, and the US didn’t force them to pay restitutions equal to the cost of mitigating the damage they’ve caused.
In 2068, I’m sure some entrepreneurial politician will run on the “Prosecute the oil companies!” platform, long after a bunch of them have gone bankrupt and all the damage has long since been irreparably done.
Until then, we just need to keep looking for the Least Bad politician (the guy who has one hand out to fossil fuel and another to privatized wind/solar) rather than the guy who insists wind farms spread COVID with 5g, and hope we don’t live long enough to reap the whirlwind.
They are telling provocative things on purpose. It is needed to create the fake debate that traps the public between two falsehood.
The heated tones and the strong arguments are meant to enrage people, drag them into the battle and push them to take one side and accept the arguments of that side without a proper deep thinking.
What a unique take. Thanks for contributing
Alright time for corporations to take responsibility and shut down all of their emissions. No more new cars, or gasoline for existing cars, or oil, or meat, a lot of the electrical grid is coming down, construction is halted, no more deliveries or shipping.
Good ideas all around. Thanks for suggesting them. Shut it all down before we all burn to death or drown.
I’ll go vegetarian and ride my bike, fuck it.
That said, these motherfuckers need to fix what they fucked up, not just stop making it worse.
I dont understand, everyone bought bigger SUV’s and it didnt help
Unironically, that’s partly due to our emissions coding system. According to the system, a light truck with more seats gets more emissions allowance, incentivizing auto makers to lean into the larger class. That’s why there are so many extended cab pickups, yet so few two-seaters with an eight foot bed. We all know that six-seater Ram MegaCab or the Escalade that seats eight is often only driving one selfish person to work.
Its entirely due to people buying larger SUV’s.
Right, and the reason auto manufacturers are creating so many is because we incentivize emissions reduction by class, and light trucks allow for more emissions.
Its because people are buying more larger SUV’s. Cars are still cheaper than SUV’s but consumers are choosing to buy bigger.
I don’t think you’re listening. Small vehicles are not sold in America anymore. When was the last time you saw a new two door car? Americans are buying larger vehicles because that’s the only option. That’s the only option because the fuel economy rules in this country are broken.
Ah no, see i specified SUVs. By a large margin most new vehicles sold are large SUVs https://www.motortrend.com/news/best-selling-cars-trucks-suvs-in-america-2023/
I know about the emissions standards exception for trucks and SUVs, its shitty. But there are still new cars being sold, cars that dont qualify for the more relaxed emissions standard, cars with a much higher mpg as a result, that cost less than the larger SUVs they are buying instead. Mitsubishi mirage or nissan versa are 2 that pop up. If consumers wanted smaller cars, that’s what we would have.
Having driven a Nissan Versa, they aren’t fun on the freeway, country roads or anywhere you’d be around anything the size of a standard SUV or current truck.
Well, also, increased trans-oceanic shipping (lots of old ships still use bunker fuel, some of the nastiest fossil fuel on the market) and increased air travel and also plus too a bunch of wars keep happening.
I should note that we do have a solution to the first problem. But it’s predicated on the rapid deployment of a very modern kind of nuclear engine.
And that means replacing tens of thousands of old ICE engines. Which means spending money. Which private industry hates.
So don’t hold your breath waiting for any of this shit to change. But do hold you breath around bunker fuel, because jesus fucking christ that shit is gross.
by “it” I was talking about the trend of larger SUV’s
but on that topic, check out the breakdown of emissions by type of transportation https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58861#_idTextAnchor054
We need to throw away all the old SUVs and buy new SUVs powered by AI and financed with crypto.
They need to mine bitcoin while idling on our driveway.
Hmm I think we need even bigger trucks and also more religion and less gay people. That’ll fix it.
This is what big business want. Did you have a look at what the media think about electric cars? They always show either Tesla or big electric SUV and they tell you that they are green. Big business want to sell big cars even if they require a lot more energy and materials to be manufactured, even if they consume a lot more energy when they are on the road, even if they take a lot more space on the road and in the parking lots.
We are so fucked unless we force “all” the big corporations to pay for the pollution they caused while making trillions in profit over the decades they polluted and hid the scientific knowledge showing climate change. And even then,if we stop polluting right now, we still might not Make it as a civilisation.
Yeah just throw money at the carbon dioxide to make it go away
You say this sarcastically like it’s not really an option
Where can i buy a carbon dioxide remover
A) at any tree nursery
B) these machines actually exist, and throwing money at them would no doubt expedite the process of making them a viable solution
Havent tree charities been planting billions or something? Is co2 reducing yet?
Get me a link to buy one of these machines
There you go. You got cash, they build the plant for you.
You’re a bad and boring troll
“these machines actually exist”
“show me”
“wow what a troll”
It’s not trolling it’s arguing. Big difference. The word “troll” is not a get-out-of-debate-free card.
Exactly. Methane too. There are countless engineering projects with potential for mitigation. VCs aren’t exactly lining up to “do good for the planet” without returns. Money caused the problem, just like money could address it.
Theres no such thing as clean fossil fuels, creating carbon dioxide is intrinsic to combustion energy.
What does that have to do with removal of CO2 and methane? There are plenty of solar, wind, wave, and salt powered removal solutions, as well as chemical.
http://arpa-e.energy.gov/technologies/exploratory-topics/direct-ocean-capture
Edit: Additional information on carbon conversion processes from further down in this thread
https://energy.stanford.edu/research/research-areas/carbon-removal/co2-conversion-use
https://news.mit.edu/2022/turning-carbon-dioxide-valuable-products-0907
Sorry, you said methane and i assumed you were talking about carbon capture from fossile fuel plants.
None of those are current solutions, step 1 is they release the co2 from the ocean. There is no step 2.
That’s simply not true. There are many models that convert it to bicarbonate or ethanol, building materials, bioplastics, or bind the carbon in solid form to be safely released back into the environment. The problem is they’re all expensive.
Oh, those werent in the link you provided, or in what i found looking at current carbon capture technology.
China is the world’s biggest polluter in absolute terms
All includes China I’d think
They would never accept those terms
It’s easy to point the finger at China when so many products the western world consumes is manufactured there.
Why do you think that is? Over 50,000 US companies manufacture in China. Paying them to do our dirty industrial work, shipping the wares halfway around the world, and then pointing your finger as if they’re the problem is absurd.
Somebody better tell the climate that, because so far it hasn’t been respecting national borders, kinda unfair tbh. I mean, as long as we’re not the literal worst by one or two statistics, we shouldn’t bear any of the consequences of our actions, right? Until we can teach physics about global politics and bullshitting with statistics, though, maybe we should all focus on doing whatever we can to reduce the effects of climate change.
We have already gone past that for the last couple of years. It seems like 6% of respondents are very naïve.
Anyone who hasn’t had their head up their ass has been aware of this. Life will be extremely shitty by the mid century. If you haven’t made the horrible choice to reproduce, be sure that you don’t. There will be no future worth living for those born today.
Gonna be much quicker than 25yrs.
What exactly do you predict in terms of lifestyle changes by mid century?
It isn’t my personal predictions. It is the predictions made by climate scientists and even the military industrial complex (based on climate models). We’ve already begun to see the effects and they will get worse. Extreme weather events, massive migration, famine, drought, and war. This is what the future holds, even if developed countries can dampen the impacts for a time, they won’t be immune. It isn’t great.
Based on the scientific sources you’re referring to, are there any specific predictions in terms of certain numbers by certain dates?
Like are we talking 50% loss of farmland? Are we talking 50% increase in farmland? Are we talking by 2030, by 2050, by 2070, what?
I don’t have specifics memorized, of course. If you’d like specifics; the EU, NOAA, UN, USDOD, EPA, NASA, etc, have all released predictions along with sources you can dive into. It has been getting worse over the last 15 years, as far as predictions.
You have the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis. That’s going to be the permanent state after 2050. Few jobs, high prices, that kind of misery.
Any quantifiable predictions? Words like “few” and “high” don’t really lead to falsifiable claims.
Of course not. You’re never sure if another war starts or when another COVID happens. Nobody can make quantifiable predictions. Those that do are trying to sell you something.
Are you joking? Quantifiable predictions are the basis of science. It’s called hypothesis. It’s why we use statistics: setting numerical thresholds for significance allows us to look at ambiguous data and draw conclusions we know are free from our own perceptual biases.
Who on earth told you that quantifiable predictions are for people trying to sell you something?
Economists. It’s about jobs and prices after all. It’s even debated if economics is a science.
The only chance we have that I see is the rapid development of fusion into a proper, usable power source, the supplantation of effectively all carbon emitting power plants with non-emitting plants (fusion or otherwise), the effectively complete electrification of the global commercial transport system, and a massive scaling of production direct carbon capture, leveraging the various aforementioned non-carbon emitting electricity sources to make it happen.
Yep.
Our experts estimate that the various societies on Earth have a 96% chance of solving the Great Filter using humanity’s great superpower of technological innovation, but paradoxically only a 3 to 7.5% chance of successfully implementing the necessary societal and political changes before complete extinction.
I’m getting a bit more optimistic when I read about companies like Terraform Industries and Prometheus Fuels. If they really can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels, things can change really fast for the better.
To be fair there are more options. Like reduce over consumption, restore forested lands, voting the right people in the office. Prosecute abusers, big companies/ personalities who contribute to this issue.
The only chance we have that I see is the rapid development of fusion into a proper, usable power source,
Fusion is a marketing story to distract the attention. It is so difficult to realize a practical commercial fusion technology that it will not be available this century for sure.
In any case as I explained in the other comment the root cause is overpopulation. Solving the energy problems might mitigate for a while the situation, but it will not solve the situation. Famines, conflicts and mass migration will happen anyway.
Or, alternatively, having enough energy for everyone would mean no more population problem. Many thousands of people smarter than you and I believe that fusion power is feasible, and in our lifetime, and have dedicated their entire professional lives to that goal.
It’s an insult to them to have wave it away like this.
Fusion is nuclear and nuclear is considered double plus ungood.
might as well ban microwaves for emitting ‘radiation’.
The all natural crowd isn’t aware of that yet
Guess who is trying to deep-six EVs?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_encumbrance_of_large_automotive_NiMH_batteries
Something of a laundry list. But the short answer is the US Auto Battery Consortium (USABC).
famines, conflicts and mass migration
This will happen for sure and the cause is not just climate change. The cause is overpopulation and exhaustion of the Earth resources.
which is why we’re just gonna retreat into pockets of radicalism where we all kill each other. max profit til then.
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77% of respondents believe global temperatures will reach at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels, a devastating degree of heating;
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almost half – 42% – think it will be more than 3C;
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only 6% think the 1.5C limit will be achieved.
This is not how science works.
an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Nobody claiming this is science.
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