to keep is simple, as I don’t know just how much you know (and I’m still very new myself tbh)
it’s all purposefully complicated with obscure rules and exceptions, all specifically meant to trip up new “players”, breaking some in the wrong way can land you in prison, while a slight variation might be perfectly fine.
what helped me the most is understanding just how truly rigged the whole thing is, and what helped the most there was a book called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, everything in it applies frighteningly well to modern day markets even though it was written over 100 years ago.
the biggest most important lesson is…look at everything like a scam designed specifically to extract as much $ from you as possible (which, is especially in low overall-trading volume levels like now, is 100% true. that’s fundamentally what bubbles are, people deliberately running the price of stocks up). it’s a zero-sum game, in order for you to gain someone else has to lose.
whether that’s bonds, stocks, futures, whatever.
but…there are 2 very fundamental rules that always reassert themselves eventually.
the true value of the underlying security, and if a company doesnt pay out a dividend…that means it’s stock is functionally worthless
the line MUST go up/down eventually
the more of a disconnect between those 2 things there is, the more someone who knows 1 can take advantage of someone who only thinks in terms 2.
and the best way to do that (for plebs atleast) is…exercising stock-options.
the US market, contrary to…literally every other market on earth, has this little rule that allows you to exercise options early.
so for example, say someone sells you a put option on SPY 3 years out, strike…780.
right now that’d cost about 12,500/contract to buy. if you bought that and SPY dropped under 655 anytime in the next 3 years…you could exercise it immediately for a profit.
right now spy is 658…a 3 point drop between now and 3 years out…that’s practically guaranteed. free $.
but when someone executes those contracts on you, if you don’t have the underlying, 1 of 2 things happens…you start paying your broker interest to borrow the underlying (at an ever increasing rate) or they forcibly close your position, which if your over-leveraged enough means…you get liquidated.
the issue is though, in a bubble, when everything is overvalued…how to do you safely play the casino without owning the underlying?
Thank you for writing all that up. I don’t understand most of it but it gives me a starting point.
When TRUMPCOIN dropped right after Jan 20th I figured his goal was to break the economy so I just moved everything I was allowed to move into gold figuring it would be better to have gold than USD. So far that has paid off. I have several bond investments I’d have to take penalties to move so I left them alone. Given the state of things now I wish I’d gone ahead and done it.
Did selling all my stocks and buying gold reduce market liquidity at all?
unless whatever “gold” you bought into actually delivered you physical gold or pays out a dividend…it’s probably being played the same as everything else, thats the whole point of a bubble.
bonds are a whole other beast, as bonds whole point is to act as a safe secure longterm investment…when the wolves run the show…their whole goal is making everything unsafe. they’re trying to “shake people out”
hence, mass devaluation of USD, ontop of out of control inflation (being hidden in crypto), and undermining any and all sources reliability like say…replacing heads of various “independent” federal agencies meant to report on the economy (and mass firings in those orgs). and of course…that ol’ sovereign debt crisis that pops up every 3-6 months.
if your goal is keeping your nestegg safe, nothing connected to the US economy/USD is safe until the wolves are gone.
but overall…you can just follow buffets advice, put your $ in stuff you know and don’t mind holding a long time.
if you already sold your stocks…i’d look over everything you sold and see where it stands now, buying back might still a good deal. hell maybe it dropped since and you get a discount, who knows.
they’re playing a dangerous game…if they (the people behind trump) forget rule 1, they arent the oldest players and that means they definitely don’t have the lowest cost basis. they fuck over or steal from the wrong people too many times and eventually they will get wiped out themselves (though forcing institutions to start offering and by extension buying crytpo, because they have hedge…smart move…)
lol, depending on when you moved it to gold then your probably up a bunch now.
really, at the end of the day you jusy gotta do what you believe is the best move. that’s the only way you’ll be comfortable enough to not panic sell
personally, if i had a half a million mestegg right now and wanted to keep it safe…gold probably is one of the safer places to stash it. just make sure you have enough cash lying around to be able to pay whatever bills/debts you have during an extended economic downturn. as when that does come…gold will also plummet eventually, but it normally recovers faster because so many people/governments around the world buy so much of it.
the main thing is to not trade/move your money emotionally, dont panic sell or buy cause of a fear of missing out. these greedy assholes want you to do that, thats the whole reason they fuck with shit like this. it’s a sick game to these people.
you got to have rules, a plan for scenarios like this one (don’t have everything in US companies, for example), and most importantly have the discpline stick to them.
Yeah. Measured in USD the move was very well timed. Since moving it my goal has changed from protecting my assets to staving this system. Economic pressure seems to be the only thing this executive responds to at all. Are COMEX futures used for some kind of fractional lending scheme or similar? How can I make sure as much as possible is withheld from the system without literally buying gold and burying it in the forest?
I dont know there, US cemented itself as center of world trade/finance specifically so it could have as kuch reach as possible.
got to talk to an actual financial advisor for that kind question, a proper one who is legally obligated to work in your best interesr.
but, my first guess would be to look at what orher countries/big foreign interests are doing. ones selling off all their US bonds and whatnot, clearly trying to get out from under USA’s schizophrenic thumb. but i’m still very new to this whole thing
I have no interest in finance but I have a big retirement account. Can you explain how to do this so I can help too?
to keep is simple, as I don’t know just how much you know (and I’m still very new myself tbh)
it’s all purposefully complicated with obscure rules and exceptions, all specifically meant to trip up new “players”, breaking some in the wrong way can land you in prison, while a slight variation might be perfectly fine.
what helped me the most is understanding just how truly rigged the whole thing is, and what helped the most there was a book called Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, everything in it applies frighteningly well to modern day markets even though it was written over 100 years ago.
the biggest most important lesson is…look at everything like a scam designed specifically to extract as much $ from you as possible (which, is especially in low overall-trading volume levels like now, is 100% true. that’s fundamentally what bubbles are, people deliberately running the price of stocks up). it’s a zero-sum game, in order for you to gain someone else has to lose.
whether that’s bonds, stocks, futures, whatever.
but…there are 2 very fundamental rules that always reassert themselves eventually.
the true value of the underlying security, and if a company doesnt pay out a dividend…that means it’s stock is functionally worthless
the line MUST go up/down eventually
the more of a disconnect between those 2 things there is, the more someone who knows 1 can take advantage of someone who only thinks in terms 2.
and the best way to do that (for plebs atleast) is…exercising stock-options. the US market, contrary to…literally every other market on earth, has this little rule that allows you to exercise options early.
so for example, say someone sells you a put option on SPY 3 years out, strike…780. right now that’d cost about 12,500/contract to buy. if you bought that and SPY dropped under 655 anytime in the next 3 years…you could exercise it immediately for a profit.
right now spy is 658…a 3 point drop between now and 3 years out…that’s practically guaranteed. free $.
but when someone executes those contracts on you, if you don’t have the underlying, 1 of 2 things happens…you start paying your broker interest to borrow the underlying (at an ever increasing rate) or they forcibly close your position, which if your over-leveraged enough means…you get liquidated.
the issue is though, in a bubble, when everything is overvalued…how to do you safely play the casino without owning the underlying?
Thank you for writing all that up. I don’t understand most of it but it gives me a starting point.
When TRUMPCOIN dropped right after Jan 20th I figured his goal was to break the economy so I just moved everything I was allowed to move into gold figuring it would be better to have gold than USD. So far that has paid off. I have several bond investments I’d have to take penalties to move so I left them alone. Given the state of things now I wish I’d gone ahead and done it.
Did selling all my stocks and buying gold reduce market liquidity at all?
unless whatever “gold” you bought into actually delivered you physical gold or pays out a dividend…it’s probably being played the same as everything else, thats the whole point of a bubble.
bonds are a whole other beast, as bonds whole point is to act as a safe secure longterm investment…when the wolves run the show…their whole goal is making everything unsafe. they’re trying to “shake people out”
hence, mass devaluation of USD, ontop of out of control inflation (being hidden in crypto), and undermining any and all sources reliability like say…replacing heads of various “independent” federal agencies meant to report on the economy (and mass firings in those orgs). and of course…that ol’ sovereign debt crisis that pops up every 3-6 months.
if your goal is keeping your nestegg safe, nothing connected to the US economy/USD is safe until the wolves are gone. but overall…you can just follow buffets advice, put your $ in stuff you know and don’t mind holding a long time.
if you already sold your stocks…i’d look over everything you sold and see where it stands now, buying back might still a good deal. hell maybe it dropped since and you get a discount, who knows.
they’re playing a dangerous game…if they (the people behind trump) forget rule 1, they arent the oldest players and that means they definitely don’t have the lowest cost basis. they fuck over or steal from the wrong people too many times and eventually they will get wiped out themselves (though forcing institutions to start offering and by extension buying crytpo, because they have hedge…smart move…)
I just moved it to COMEX. I’m a bit intimidated to try to manage a half million USD of physical gold deliveries. What can I do?
lol, depending on when you moved it to gold then your probably up a bunch now.
really, at the end of the day you jusy gotta do what you believe is the best move. that’s the only way you’ll be comfortable enough to not panic sell
personally, if i had a half a million mestegg right now and wanted to keep it safe…gold probably is one of the safer places to stash it. just make sure you have enough cash lying around to be able to pay whatever bills/debts you have during an extended economic downturn. as when that does come…gold will also plummet eventually, but it normally recovers faster because so many people/governments around the world buy so much of it.
the main thing is to not trade/move your money emotionally, dont panic sell or buy cause of a fear of missing out. these greedy assholes want you to do that, thats the whole reason they fuck with shit like this. it’s a sick game to these people. you got to have rules, a plan for scenarios like this one (don’t have everything in US companies, for example), and most importantly have the discpline stick to them.
Yeah. Measured in USD the move was very well timed. Since moving it my goal has changed from protecting my assets to staving this system. Economic pressure seems to be the only thing this executive responds to at all. Are COMEX futures used for some kind of fractional lending scheme or similar? How can I make sure as much as possible is withheld from the system without literally buying gold and burying it in the forest?
I dont know there, US cemented itself as center of world trade/finance specifically so it could have as kuch reach as possible.
got to talk to an actual financial advisor for that kind question, a proper one who is legally obligated to work in your best interesr.
but, my first guess would be to look at what orher countries/big foreign interests are doing. ones selling off all their US bonds and whatnot, clearly trying to get out from under USA’s schizophrenic thumb. but i’m still very new to this whole thing