Another reason to live in a blue state if you can.

Yeah, I was wondering how they are going to expel an EU citizen.

Germany, like really WTH is wrong with you.

You could have made this same analysis in 2000 and it would be equally valid.

Yes, the business world is willing to pay big bucks to reduce labour costs and that business case is solid.

But we already see that success is not determined by the size of the model, but by the data and providing and processing that data in a smart way to the AI. And the companies that are successful in this area are model agnostic. They can, and will, switch to cheaper to run models that are good enough for their purposes.

So the dogma that whoever has the biggest model wins, just doesn’t apply. AI is already hitting diminishing returns.

Once the investment money pumping the hype is gone, there will be a glut of capacity and a heavy price competition, which will drive down margins.

I will say that Israel is many times more evil than Hamas.

But Hamas definitely is evil, too.

They torture and kill Palestinians to maintain power. They had even smuggled a Yezidi slave girl into Gaza.

Of course, I do understand that they are resisting oppression. And that is justified. And I also know that a lot of the propaganda against them is false, such as the beheaded babies thing.

But there are enough credible reports of them doing really shady stuff.

And China basically has a monopoly on Siberia with the current arrangements.

Officially, yes.

Orban is just being Orban.

But Poland said they wouldn’t arrest him either and the new German chancellor also said the same.

It’s only genocide if you starve white kids.

I agree. Almost no one is pro-Hamas. They are definitely evil.

Still, doesn’t justify starving kids, bombing kids and withholding medicine which forces doctors to amputate kids without anaesthesia.

Genocide is not just about numbers. If the Bosnian genocide qualifies as a genocide, then Gaza definitely qualifies too.

In my view, the Gaza genocide is also worse than the Holocaust in many respects. For one, most Germans didn’t know about, or support, genocide, nor did the Nazi’s have any kind of democratic mandate.

Whereas in the US and Israel, this is the first time a democracy is committing genocide with popular support.

By all accounts, China isn’t killing Uyghurs, but re-educating them.

The Uyghur genocide is better described as a cultural genocide, not a real genocide.

It is still awful, still bad. But it doesn’t involve large scale murder and it doesn’t meet the criteria used to qualify as a legal genocide.

In contrast, the Gaza genocide is definitely a genocide, as was the trail of tears.

You don’t ‘need’ Russia, but it’s mutually beneficial to have them on your side.

Why would Russia risk alienating China?

In realpolitik, China is the more desirable partner than the USA.

To know how exactly it works, we’d need to know details that aren’t public.

But just speculating, if the creditors value the combined xAI+X higher than just X, then there is room to transfer the loan to the new company and away from Tesla.

But whatever the details are, Elon isn’t an idiot when it comes to money. He definitely has advisors who cooked up the optimal way to profit from the AI hype.

And the essence of that is that Tesla shareholders will be left holding the bag, while Elon utiizes X/xAI to capitalize on the hype.

I have only seen them online. I figure they are trolls or bots.

But I do think that China has a better human rights record than the US and Israel.

They are still evil in how they treat Uyghurs, Tibetans and democracy activists. They definitely use torture on dissidents.

But it’s not that difficult to be better than slavery, genocide, war and colonialism. And the US and Israel also use torture.

So maybe I am the tankie that OP refers to.

I actually agree with you, they definitely have the edge, but I still am skeptical that they will be able to maintain their valuation.

I just don’t see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.

Most people will only use free AI and companies will mostly buy cheap AI.

Running Deepseek locally is basically free. That’s the competition.

Bingo.

And also depends on which side China is on. Their war production dwarfs even the US, and I find it difficult to believe that it will all be spent fighting the US and Taiwan.

There is a very real possibility that these three countries gang up together and divide the world among themselves.

End of the decade is 31-12-2029, which is about 4.7 years away, not 10.

10 years would be “within/in/over a decade”.

Not all religions claim to know everything.

Yes, the ones that do tend to be violent and oppressive, so I understand the criticism.

But many religions are more about searching truth, learning to love each other and have community. And their followers definitely tend to be modest and have a “I don’t know enough” mentality.

I definitely see Google/Amazon/Microsoft shedding a huge amount of market cap when the time comes to write-off the 100s of billions they invested the past two years.

They just don’t have any feasible path to recouping those investments.

Sure, they’ll never go fully broke, that’s just a nice word for emphasis.

I realize you are confused.

You don’t appreciate that having 200 shares of a fund today, at today’s valuation, is better than having 100 shares of that same fund today.

Because that’s the point I clearly made, which you ignored and constructed some kind of straw man on which you had your little Don Quixote party on.

And if you really want to understand the philosophy, the point is to take profits prudently and buy bargains when they present themselves. And that’s very much possible without exactly timing the market.

I have never sold at the top and never bought at the bottom. I have no crystal ball to time the market, but I have made a lot of profit buying low and selling high.

Correct.

It’s actually a smart move.

The dumb money are those pouring hundreds of billions into the AI hype. This is .com bubble on steroids.

And sure, AI obviously is becoming an important market, but it will not be the current leaders who will dominate the tech. Like the internet, it’s just too easy to catch up for competitors. Pouring $100B into AI today will only mean you lose out to the $1B startup in 2 years. The incumbents will go broke.