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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 3rd, 2023

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  • I’m not sure quite how it relates to what I said. Maybe we are looking at the word risk differently. Let me give an easy example that shows what I think normally is hidden because of complexity.

    Five CEOs are faced with the same opportunity to invest heavily in a make or break deal. They either succeed or they go bus, iif they do it. This investment, for one reason or another, only have one winner (because we are simplifying a complex real world problem). All five CEOs invest, four go bust and one wins big. In this simplified example, the one winning CEO would be seen as a great CEO. After all, he did great. The reasonable decision would have been to not invest, but that doesn’t make you a great CEO that can move on to better, greener jobs or cash out huge bonuses. No-one remembers the reasonable CEO that made expected gains without unneeded risks.




  • Sadly don’t think this is going to happen. A good CEO doesn’t make calculated decisions based on facts and judge risk against profit. If he did, he would, at best, be a normal CEO. Who wants that? No, a truly great CEO does exactly what a truly bad CEO does; he takes risks that aren’t proportional to the reward (and gets lucky)!

    This is the only way to beat the game, just like with investments or roulette. There are no rich great roulette players going by the odds. Only lucky.

    Sure, with CEOs, this is on the aggregate. I’m sure there is a genius here and a Renaissance man there… But on the whole, best advice is “get risky and get lucky”. Try it out. I highly recommend it. No one remembers a loser. And the story continues.