• 3 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • You know you hit on something here probably unexpectedly.

    Ive been bothered by the way the housing market is going against all logic “how can it just keep going up???”

    I blamed all sorts of things but stopped when I think I found the formula.

    The entry price of housing is in your area is equal to the borrowing power of the AVERAGE household. Seriously test it, go and find the average household income in your area, go to a mortgage calculator and work out what the amount they can borrow is.

    So, back when say 15% of houses were dual income, housing was affordable on a single income. But when it tips over, house prices go up. Because johnny landscaper and carol hairdresser can get a loan for $1m that is the entry level house price in your area. Because they will always maximise their purchase.

    So what happens, given that logic, when mortgage times go from 25 to 30 years? The household has more borrowing power - house prices up.

    Buuut. If the price of eggs stay high, borrowing power decreases. If interest rates go up, prices go down.

    Now finally then. What happens when we start moving our parents / grandparents into the house? What about if - on average - we will split the mortgage with a larger household size? It will become the average, and when it’s the average, it will be the rule.