America has the largest and richest consumer base. We are one of the few major economies to have a large population of millennials and gen z.
Who will Japan, Germany and China sell their shit to? There isn’t a market that can replace the US. The US also simply can’t make everything we like to consume. Which is why we are now headed for recession/stagflation.
This is a dead cat bounce. Nothing fundamentally has changed until Trump is out of office. There is no one talking him down from his bad decision making.
He will move onto the next grift or scandal so he can dominate the next news cycle and make the old one go away. Eventually he will come back to fuck with the economy again.
Rinse & Repeat/Round and round we go until he hits something big he can’t make go away like Covid did in his first term. Then he will loose it.
If you want my bet on what that is, it will be a major war.
No he won’t give tariffs up. This was his latest gift to make 10% tariffs on everything seem not so bad. I’m willing to bet 10% was always his goal and the crazy numbers he threw out were there to make 10% seem reasonable.
The problem is after 4 months of attacking allies, siding with dictators, reneging on prior trade agreements he negotiated, and being called out for it globally. This latest economic grift wiped any trust the US had left.
The US is uninvestable while he is in power. You can’t make major investments be it a billion dollar factory complex or some small business importing goods to build a product. You could be wiped out because of a mood swing or Orange Mussolini’s latest grift.
Worse his tariffs put many US manufacturers at a disadvantage compared to foreign competitors. He’s just set the stage for a definite recession, long term slow economic growth or at worse a depression if the bond market fully breaks down.
Even if he can get tax cuts passed they won’t do shit to put it all back together.
I agree this is just market euphoria. We have a lot of systemic issues that have been exacerbated and/or entirely created by Trump.
The core problem is Trump full stop. He is sitting in the White House with nothing but “Yes” men in his cabinet. It’s only a mater of time until he releases his next scheme on the market.
It’s not a big deal. Rare earth minerals aren’t that rare.
It’s the refining of rare earth minerals which is energy intensive and causes a great deal of pollution.
It was nice that China was destroying their own environment and spending the capital to build power plants. Now we will have to invest the capital to do it ourselves.
Thundermail… yeah yeah. :gently pushes my aol.com account under the sofa:
I mean if top US officials can drop top secret battle plans on a chat with a journalist and get away with it.
Why can’t a low level government employee wet their wick in a Chinese honeypot every once in a while. I just don’t see the point.
Bezos wants his own X…
European and Chinese infrastructure is the problem.
Our infrastructure has lasted over 60 years but it is time to renew it. We also don’t approach infrastructure the same way Europe or China does.
China has traditionally approached infrastructure by overbuilding well beyond any future need for the sake of chasing GDP figures and keeping the population employed (though this has changed in recent years). What they build can be dubious at times. They build apartment buildings, condos and houses much denser than in the US but they are built cheaply.
Europe tends to over build. Roads are usually much thicker, smoother, public transportation is top notch. Buildings are built to a much higher standard. But the population pays for that quality and it can’t be spread out as much. As a result your population density is much higher.
We build enough infrastructure to satisfy the need. If something is older we repair it and keep it in service well past its lifetime. Our houses are built cheaply and we tend to have less dense populations. That is the key to our demographics. No one wants to raise children in a small apartment in a city, let alone four or five of them. In the US large houses with a yard and 3 or four bedrooms is the norm. As a result it isn’t as hard raising kids so we have more than the equivalent couple in China and Europe.
As a result of 40 years of low birth rates most of Europe and China are aging rapidly. They have no large Millennial population like the US does. This means their consumer base is dwindling and if they want to maintain their industrial base they need export markets to sell their goods.
Meh I went through the same shit in 03, 08 and Covid. It hurts but keep depositing and/or increase your contribution. Your future self will thank you.
You mean WOT, the Great Recession and Covid were just a dream?
Meh we put ourselves at the center of globalization and trade by offering the Europeans access to our markets in exchange for being our meat shields if the Ruskies ever decided to get uppity.
Now globalization is starting to break down because we have no interest in maintaining it. Every president since Clinton has been more and more isolationist than the last. Even Biden had no interest in maintaining the order. The aid he offered to Ukraine was primarily military support, there was very little economic support for after the war.
Trump has moved the needle on populism in the US. Breaking global trade was always going to happen, but Trump is accelerating it. Yes he is a corrupt skum bag, but we’ve had skum bag presidents in the past.
America in the long term will be fine, our demographics are better than Europes or Chinas, we make our own energy and grow enough food to feed our population. We just need to restore manufacturing to North America (I.E. Canada, Mexico and USA).
America can exist quite happily as a regional hegemony and let Europe, India, Russia and China fight over the rest of the world.
I see we have a dirty tankie in our midst.
I knew I’d get the ol’ switch-a-roo comments. Please enjoy one internet point sir.
Did you happen to notice the one country not on the list?
Here I’ll give you a hint it’s name starts with an “R” and is run by a man who’s name starts with a “P” and is currently at war with a country that starts with a “U”…
Don’t delete your account, scramble your past comments into AI generated gibberish. It poisons the well for AI and makes the site even more unusable by humans.
There is nothing like reading one or two sentences into a comment and realizing it is garbage.
Are you me? Because I got banned from every group at one point or anotherc… r/guns, r/europe, r/politics, etc. etc.
Ironically what got my account permanently banned was a comment advocating for disabled access to buildings in r/Europe of all my comments I didn’t expect that one to get me banned…
After that I scrambled all my comments on my 10+ year old account into AI generated gibberish to poison the well and moved to Lemmy. Now I just use Reddit for porn searches.
Cold War wouldn’t dominate the news cycle enough.
Some say we may be in the opening stages of WW3 so I’m imagining full on war or domestic instability/insurrection.
Of course an unchecked pandemic should always be on anyone’s bingo card moving forward as well.