The clearest change that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is likely to make on foreign policy is in Ukraine. Republican support for spending more on sending weapons to Kyiv has been declining, and Trump will probably follow through on his promise to seek a peace deal.
The problem is that peace will likely come at terms that do not favor Kyiv. Now, Ukraine’s military losses have begun to mount, and the practical barriers to continued support to Ukraine—declining Western stockpiles, Ukraine’s significant manpower and corruption problems—have increased. Trump has a popular mandate to seek a settlement, even though Europeans might object.
You have to frame everything in terms that apply to trump. His goal is to be in a room with Putin, being praised for dealing with the Ukraine problem. He wants to be acknowledged by another dictator and strong man, that’s it. He’ll definitely pressure both Ukraine and their European supporters to accept Russian conquest of Ukrainian territory so he can get a ceasefire. It’s not because he hates Ukraine, he probably doesn’t care about them at all, it’s just the pursuit of affirmation for himself. It’s up to Europe, and hopefully RoK, to push forward and give democracy a win to raise everyone’s morale.