They assert that how people bet, whether on the benign (who will be the next James Bond?) or the consequential (will Israel and Hamas reach a cease-fire before the end of the year?), can help forecast the future. Because there’s money involved, the thinking goes, these prediction markets leverage the collective wisdom of what people actually think will occur, not what they hope will.

DJT stock ticker would like a word.

jk We all know the DJT stock is overvalued because of money laundering and selling access rather than “collective wisdom”.