lemmy.yachts
  • Communities
  • Create Post
  • Create Community
  • heart
    Support Lemmy
  • search
    Search
  • Login
  • Sign Up
return2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 1 year ago

Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages

abcnews.go.com

external-link
message-square
17
fedilink
20
external-link

Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages

abcnews.go.com

return2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 1 year ago
message-square
17
fedilink
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential polling averages for Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.
  • atzanteol@sh.itjust.works
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    10
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    1 year ago

    538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.

    No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”

    • Ben Hur Horse Race@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      1 year ago

      I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60%

      • PowerCrazy@lemmy.ml
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        4
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

      • atzanteol@sh.itjust.works
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.

    • DogPeePoo@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      2
      arrow-down
      2
      ·
      edit-2
      1 year ago

      Sure, Jan

      You know how the internet works, right?

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

      Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩

      GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

      • atzanteol@sh.itjust.works
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        5
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 year ago

        You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…

        • Pheonixdown@lemm.ee
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          1 year ago

          Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.

          • atzanteol@sh.itjust.works
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            1 year ago

            Hah! Excellent example. 😆

United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml

usa@lemmy.ml

Subscribe from Remote Instance

Create a post
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: [email protected]
Visibility: Public
globe

This community can be federated to other instances and be posted/commented in by their users.

  • 675 users / day
  • 2.08K users / week
  • 3.92K users / month
  • 9.52K users / 6 months
  • 1 local subscriber
  • 8.28K subscribers
  • 6.45K Posts
  • 23.4K Comments
  • Modlog
  • mods:
  • pangyuehung@lemmy.ml
  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
  • BE: 0.19.7
  • Modlog
  • Instances
  • Docs
  • Code
  • join-lemmy.org