Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I’m paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they’re wrong, nothing. But if they’re right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it’s better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the “I guess right” lottery.
There’s an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you’re down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a ‘sure thing’ for the 8th game.
Bears have predicted 11 of the last 2 crashes, this isn’t news
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I’m paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they’re wrong, nothing. But if they’re right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it’s better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the “I guess right” lottery.
There’s an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you’re down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a ‘sure thing’ for the 8th game.