Driverless cars were the future but now the truth is out: they’re on the road to nowhere::The dream of these vehicles ruling the roads remains just that. Focusing on public transport would be much smarter, says transport writer Christian Wolmar
The problem is not that driverless cars won’t be viable. The problem is the same as several other tech developments where a few startups promise tech that hasn’t matured yet, taking in billions of ‘stupid’ money from investors who are greedy but not knowledgeable about the underlying viability of what can realistically be done in a decade.
One hundred years from now? Driverless cars will be old news, so common or maybe even surpassed with something newer. But investors want a 10 year explosion of cash, not a 50 year investment.
One hundred years from now, it’ll probably mostly still be cars. Aerotaxis for the rich, maybe
Aerotaxis for the rich already exist: helicopters, Gulfstream, etc.
Or a 747 with everything inside gold plated if you’re a Saudi Prince.
Can’t land a helicopter at the club without a bunch of pansies whining about “public safety”, as if a few heads on the street is such a big deal.
Aerotaxis would still be aircrafts.
I don’t know why people imagine that making an aircraft the shape of a car suddenly landing would be as simple as going to a parking lot.
It’s just a joke, friend.
Air taxis are sometimes helicopters or quadcopters, and while they aren’t parking in parking lots for cars, but could still end up landing in what equates to a parking space. In New York City, they are already presenting plans to expand an air taxi hub on a pier in lower Manhattan to transport people and goods to and from the city, and it looks like a bunch of parking spaces with a logistics facility attached.
Hahahahah.
You cut off a few pansy heads and everyone gets all upset.
A century from now humanity’s population will be lucky to number in the 6 digits.
And we will all be merged with cars.
“ Artificial intelligence is a fancy name for the much less sexy-sounding “machine learning” “
This article is just a plug for this guys book and if the quote above from the article is anything to go by then I doubt the book will be anything more than a poorly researched 300 page opinion piece.
Yeah I’m mega anti-car and not at all optimistic about self-driving but this article says very little of substance.
I wouldn’t bet against self-driving cars even now. It’s fairly clear that existing AI technology is insufficient, but we’re seeing such rapid progress in that field that a more advanced AI that can drive might be invented relatively soon.
A perfect self-driving car is still way worse than a robust public transportation system. People are starting to catch on to the fact that cars are pretty fucking annoying/dangerous and hoping on a train/bus is less stressful. By the time self-driving is completely ready a significant portion of people are not going to want them.
Sure, but a public transportation system only vastly improves the lives of millions of people. How is that supposed to increase the bottom line of the car monopolists etc, eh? Nobody’s thinking how their selfish demands of “a comfortable life for the majority of people”, “a livable planet for future generations” or “letting the bottom 99% of the world’s population have a little money too” affects the richest few individuals on the planet - they might have to refrain from buying another couple dozen yachts or villas each year! Won’t somebody think of the poor, poor billionaires!
Driving itself is stressful for some people but I’m not sure how simply being in a self-driving car is worse than being on a bus. I can see how public transportation might be cheaper than a self-driving taxi but I don’t see how it might be better if price isn’t an issue. Why would someone prefer a method of transportation that (1) isn’t directly door-to-door (2) runs on someone else’s schedule (3) is often much slower than driving and (4) has to be shared with strangers over a method of transportation that has none of those disadvantages?
how simply being in a self-driving car is worse than being on a bus.
That’s easy:
You don’t have a good self-driving car (yet).
Your comparison is: either being on public transport or on a level2/3 autonomous car, where you still need to watch traffic at all times and be ready to take over the steering anytime on very short notice. That is proven to be even more stressful than driving a normal car.
And that’s going to be your choice for these next 100 years or so.
Funny how, if we had weight and trip class segregated traffic infrastructure, walkable cities, car-free areas, etc. Then we would probably already have several successful self-driving taxi companies. As indeed, a point A to point B exclusive use highway would definitely be cheaper for mid and low density traffic areas than trains. But since everyone insists travel to be from front door to front door, then the transport network is just too complex and dangerous for the machines to deal with.
since everyone insists travel to be from front door to front door
When it is wet and cold outside and you have a week’s groceries for the family, nobody wants to walk for awhile with all that crap in the cold, then get into a public transit system, then walk even further at the destination, again having to hold all their crap in the wet and cold. Is the transit system going to let one wheel a cart into it? Because I can’t hold the week’s groceries for my family with just my arms in a single trip.
There are millions of families in Tokyo (and other cities too) who don’t own a car, and manage to get their groceries without one.
It can be done.
But yeah it usually involves getting groceries more than once a week.
If we could rethink everything from scratch we could probably easily solve that use case.
Of course the hard part is changing from what we have now to whatever better solutions exist.
Like, things would be better if suburbia wasn’t just an ocean of houses with sparse islands or shops. If every house was in a community with most of the basics reachable by foot… But how tf do we get to that?
Strong Towns baybeeeee. As far as I know they recommend starting from the town center and working outwards.
You can’t fix a suburb without demolishing it but you can revitalize areas that we’re built pre-cars. Allow mixed use development in the town center with bike lanes and public transportation. Remove parking minimums and other unnecessary barriers to development. These types of development bring in much more higher revenue which can then be reinvested into further changes.
Iterative change is possible, don’t give up!
Yeah, the solution to that is to have local groceries shops where you can go shopping on foot or just with a simply grocery cart walking less than 10 minutes. The idea that you have to haul several tonnes of food from 20+Km away is stupid.
Add: I find laughable how, whenever anyone makes this kind of comments, there comes out of the woodwork the whiny manbabys who assume that it argues for taking away their cars. Read again, never did I suggest to take anyone’s car away, I’m making suggestions towards a better city, better living and better infrastructure. It says a lot that you’re so openly willing to hurt and inconvenience others to defend against an entirely imaginary threat against your 2 ton toy. A car is a tool, not a personality. And if your personality is your car, I think you have a POS personality.
Nooo, 15 minute cities are a communism plot to smoother America with comfort, or something 🤦🏻♂️
I can walk to a grocery store. I’m not doing it when weather sucks and I have a bunch of stuff.
And public transit to get there would be worse.
Besides, empty busses and empty trains require as much fuel empty as with passengers. They’re not as eco friendly as you may think.
And your assumptions about how other people live are stupid. Not everyone has the time to waste walking to get stuff.
This idea of planned cities is naive at the best. Cities grow organically, as things change. You act like cities are static entities that can predict where things will be tomorrow. Naive at best.
Just wait till you get older, where walking, even to the car, is uncomfortable or painful. And I’m not talking old - I was in this kind of pain in my 30’s, and still am. Walking from the car into the store sucks, and I’m not as bad off as some people.
You can take my car from my cold, dead, no-longer- in-pain ass.
Ah yes, there’s nothing more organic than demolishing black neighborhoods to build highways.
Waymo seems to be the best and most successful robotaxi service. My friends in Pittsburgh and the Bay speak highly of them.
But it’s a shame that none of the other robotaxi companies in the US were able to succeed.
We had a thriving robotaxi scene in Pittsburgh (R&D, no actual taxis), mostly because of CMU. But most of the work has shutdown since the pandemic (Uber ATG, Aurora, …). Waymo still seems to be doing well here though.
Waymo the one.
Just because most of the other car companies are full of shit doesn’t mean waymo isn’t making slow yet consistent gains in the area. It might take 5 years it might take 10. But mass roll out of self driving cars is coming.
We are just in the “this touchscreen phone isn’t ever going to take off” part of history.
