The Russian President has approved a record budget increase of around 30% for military spending in 2024, reaching 36.6 trillion rubles (€376.7 billion).
Unfortunately Russia has a long history of throwing bodies at a problem until it is solved. They lost almost 30 million people in WWII and I have no doubt Putin would throw as many as he could get away with at Ukraine as was needed.
I don’t think he could do 30 mil. His army is only about 3 million personnel including reservists per wikipedia, and AFU is claiming to have liquidated nearly 10% that many. Military theory is that an army loses all combat efficacy at around 30-40% casualties, and the rate of Russian casualties per day has gone up very significantly. After Russia spent all those lives in WWII, their demographics are still not what they used to be.
Despite the fact that they’re paying troops so much to fight, it’s not clear to me that they can sustain these losses indefinitely. What we’re really seeing here is whether Putin’s “military Keynesianism” can overcome Russia’s demographic collapse. Experts are already saying Russia could not mount an invasion of this scale again for the foreseeable future.
I think they’re going to end up as a failed state in the long run whether or not they succeed in Ukraine. The resistance would metastasize into an insurgency.
I think it’s important enough to note, there’s no evidence showing this was the plan in any Soviet campaign in WW2. (But this is based off memory so there could be a single digit number of times)
In WW1? That would be accurate. Say what you will about Soviets but weapons were something they could produce and properly supply unlike the tsar.
In the Ukraine war though you are probably correct.
I’ll admit my sources are unverifiable, while strong.
Stories from college professors. Guy was not a biased man, and was probably a fuggin mod on /r/askhistory; that type. 🤷♂️ Strong to me. No one listen to me. I’m drunk.
Edit: and my general history is not iron clad; could been WWI, but it seems a prevalent story beyond my eccentric old professor.
Unfortunately Russia has a long history of throwing bodies at a problem until it is solved. They lost almost 30 million people in WWII and I have no doubt Putin would throw as many as he could get away with at Ukraine as was needed.
He can solve it by withdrawing his forces.
I don’t think he could do 30 mil. His army is only about 3 million personnel including reservists per wikipedia, and AFU is claiming to have liquidated nearly 10% that many. Military theory is that an army loses all combat efficacy at around 30-40% casualties, and the rate of Russian casualties per day has gone up very significantly. After Russia spent all those lives in WWII, their demographics are still not what they used to be.
Despite the fact that they’re paying troops so much to fight, it’s not clear to me that they can sustain these losses indefinitely. What we’re really seeing here is whether Putin’s “military Keynesianism” can overcome Russia’s demographic collapse. Experts are already saying Russia could not mount an invasion of this scale again for the foreseeable future.
I think they’re going to end up as a failed state in the long run whether or not they succeed in Ukraine. The resistance would metastasize into an insurgency.
They had more soldiers than guns.
Folks went into the front lines knowing the plan was to pick up guns from their dead commrades.
I think it’s important enough to note, there’s no evidence showing this was the plan in any Soviet campaign in WW2. (But this is based off memory so there could be a single digit number of times)
In WW1? That would be accurate. Say what you will about Soviets but weapons were something they could produce and properly supply unlike the tsar.
In the Ukraine war though you are probably correct.
I’ll admit my sources are unverifiable, while strong.
Stories from college professors. Guy was not a biased man, and was probably a fuggin mod on /r/askhistory; that type. 🤷♂️ Strong to me. No one listen to me. I’m drunk.
Edit: and my general history is not iron clad; could been WWI, but it seems a prevalent story beyond my eccentric old professor.
deleted by creator