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All the elements are in place for a strike inside Venezuela
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Diplomatic relations with Venezuela have been broken since 2019.
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In 2020, the US indicted President Maduro for narco-terrorism, placing a $15 million bounty on him, subsequently raised to $25m and now $50m.
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On January 20, Trump took office. Executive Order 14157 declared a “national emergency” and designated international drug-trafficking groups as “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTOs) and “specially designated global terrorists,” citing authority under the Alien Enemies Act.
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By February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that FTOs posed an “existential threat” and laid the groundwork for treating cartels allegedly linked to President Maduro as enemy combatants.
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In May, the administration opened the path to use military force against FTOs.
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Then in July, a “secret directive” authorized military operations against FTOs at sea and on foreign soil.
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By August, the US launched a massive naval deployment off the coast of Venezuela. By October, troop deployment reportedly reached 10,000.
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On September 2, the US blew up the first of four or five alleged drug boats in international waters off of Venezuela, resulting in extrajudicial murders of the crews.
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By mid-September, the Pentagon notified Congress under the War Powers Resolution that US forces were engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.
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This was followed on October 1 by the Defense Department’s “confidential memo” and more congressional briefings that the US was engaged in armed conflict.
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Trump then terminated the last back-channel diplomatic contacts with Venezuela.
They have attacked Venezuela
Count on it. Cheeto Mussolini needs an excuse to suspend elections.
No he doesn’t. He can just make shit up! That’s what he’s doing to send soldiers to US cities, after all.
It’d be a forever war. It won’t be as terrible as Vietnam since they’re a lot further from arms suppliers than Vietnam but Venezuela still has a significant military. They have a varied terrain including jungles and mountain ranges. US has historically antagonized every country in Latin America including now neighboring Colombia and Brazil - Brazil itself having a significant arms industry. You may not have a steady stream of Russian fighter jets to Venezuela, but I’m certain missiles, guns, artillery would all manage to make it to Venezuelan resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised if people all the way out from Nicaragua would make their way into Venezuela to fight the US
It won’t be as terrible as Vietnam since they’re a lot further from arms suppliers than Vietnam but Venezuela still has a significant military
What? It’ll be worse than Vietnam because the enemy is even closer.
Yeah it’ll be like Vietnam. FARC was around for 50 years. Now imagine they were fighting with the government instead of against it.
I think it would look more like Iraq or Afghanistan than Vietnam. The USA would destroy the existing regime within days, but it isn’t going to be able to snuff out the various post war factions to create a viable country for years to come.
The war would be won, but the occupation would be lost. Even if other countries don’t fund the resistance, there is always cocaine and that funded FARC for decades.
They don’t want to create a viable country, they want to destroy the country and create chaos.
You need boots on the ground if you want a change in regime.
They’ll otherwise just move underground like Iran did, and keep hold of power through gangs (which they already control).
I’m sure the opposition won’t live long in the country if the US attacked, so as to make sure no one’s able to lead a revolution.
If you’re going to compare a war to Vietnam, that assumes boots on the ground. Also, the US strikes against Iran were never considered by either side to be an official act of war.
Given the amount of forces the US has brought to surround Venezuela, it seems almost a certainty at this point.
The most convincing argument of why nothing will happen is that an another forever war would basically sacrifice Taiwan, Ukraine and Iran project. US is peaceful when all the warhawks can’t agree on what country they should coup or bomb next.
This Gaza seize fire could however mean that they want to give themselves some space to either go after Iran again or attempt to do Venezuela quickly.
