Dark Forest is not self consistent. Ability to travel implies nanotechnology which allows metabolizing any resource which deterministically leads to expansion which leads to self-selection for fastest expanders which soon means relativistic expansion which is hard to observe since observation window is short while pre-expansive observers are extinguished. Alernative is that nucleation density is very low and/or (reaching the stage of) travel and expansion is impossible. This is consistent with what we see, so Occam’s razor cuts Dark Forest.
Ability to travel implies nanotechnology which allows metabolizing any resource which deterministically leads to expansion
Both of those aren’t really supported. Maybe all matter will be useful, or maybe rare elements will still be preferred, and what exactly nanotechnology will look like is up in the air (it could be that life has explored the space of possible nanomechanisms pretty well already). Similarly, it’s totally plausible an advanced species could stay in place. I actually worry we won’t have the attention span to fund slow interstellar expansion.
I’d agree there isn’t really a rational reason to cross interstellar space just to be a dick. Irrational reasons are possible, but seem unlikely. The only way dark forest makes sense is if competition is an issue, and the nature of space warfare leaves a strong pressure to strike early.
Dark Forest is not self consistent. Ability to travel implies nanotechnology which allows metabolizing any resource which deterministically leads to expansion which leads to self-selection for fastest expanders which soon means relativistic expansion which is hard to observe since observation window is short while pre-expansive observers are extinguished. Alernative is that nucleation density is very low and/or (reaching the stage of) travel and expansion is impossible. This is consistent with what we see, so Occam’s razor cuts Dark Forest.
Both of those aren’t really supported. Maybe all matter will be useful, or maybe rare elements will still be preferred, and what exactly nanotechnology will look like is up in the air (it could be that life has explored the space of possible nanomechanisms pretty well already). Similarly, it’s totally plausible an advanced species could stay in place. I actually worry we won’t have the attention span to fund slow interstellar expansion.
I’d agree there isn’t really a rational reason to cross interstellar space just to be a dick. Irrational reasons are possible, but seem unlikely. The only way dark forest makes sense is if competition is an issue, and the nature of space warfare leaves a strong pressure to strike early.
Those are definitely words.
Robin Hanson is in the house!
This reads like a manifesto.