China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.
Bro china’s gonna fall any day now, trust me bro. Bro this is different bro, they’re falling bro. Dude any day now they’re gonna fall bro you gotta believe me bro.
That is undoubtedly true. They are protected to lose a shit ton of their population. By 2050,they will likely have 100 million fewer people. They are projected to lose another 100 million the following decade.
Granted that is a couple decades away.
But the demand for useless junk isn’t going down (see Black Friday), so China will remain a player in making scrappy junk sold for far too much.
Can’t wait for this cash grabby capitalist stage to die out.
China will remain a player in making scrappy junk sold for far too much.
For the short term, yes. Longer term, companies are already trying to shift supply chains away from China. India, for example, has been seeing interest and investment as either a second source or a replacement source of cheap labor. The US and EU have already taken steps to start de-risking or de-coupling from China. The US CHIPS Act being one of the more visible examples. Though that whole process will take time and China will be a major player in manufacturing for years to come, while that process is ongoing.
for example cnn.com
(I’m not a tankie but) Doubt
A) I’m not sure China has had global dominance over the US, but they definitely have dominance over pretty much every other country depending how you measure it.
B) I’m really really not sure I believe the gloom and doom predictions for China’s economy when the government tightly controls all aspects of the economy. Even if they have reached the end of the boom, I don’t see much of a backslide. They are buying up shipping ports around the world to give themselves preferential rates and access. They are buying up natural resources around the world to give themselves better preferential rates. They are doing what the US did for so long in giving out predatory loans to struggling countries in exchange for preferential trade relations.
I’m pretty anti-China in most things, but I’m realistic about the state of the world.
For your second point, I feel that their declining birth rate is a huge problem that adds to the economic downturn they are facing. After the one child policy they were already facing a generation gap in the workforce, and now that the people are generally against having kids due to financial constraint, they will not be able to keep up with the workforce demand regardless of how much control the government has.
What they are doing now (to my limited understanding of global economics) is just investing to pad their economy and brace for the sudden hit their economy will take at some point.
They also have the most disproportionate gender imbalance of any nation in history, and gender imbalance is strongly associated with internal disunity and violence.
The catch is China might welcome immigrants to make up the difference in population.
China’s going to need an astronomical amount of migration to sustain their aging population, and there’s little to no reason why people would choose to migrate there over basically anywhere in the West.
China would need to do some dramatic reinvention to become an appealing destination for migrants. Step 1 might be not arbitrarily taking migrants as hostages for political purposes.
I don’t directly deal with China, but I do know that it’s pretty much the only place where you can say “I need a factory with 20k people manufacturing a million of these widgets per month,” and it just gets done. There’s obviously all kinds of bad baggage that goes along with that, and yes it’s perhaps ironic that a “communist” country is the go-to place for labor exploitation, but that’s how it is right now.
China may have been guilty of enthusiastic over-investment that got ahead of where their market actually was in areas like real estate. That’s again ironic because that’s exactly one of the weaknesses of market systems.
In the other hand it’s not really ironic because China is actually the apotheosis of state capitalism.
The end of China’s economic boom, just means they cannot maintain above 10% economic growth anymore.
China has had that for about 40 years now, which is insane compared to anything I know of regarding economic miracles.
Chances are that China will manage to beat the west again on economic growth, because they invest heavily in infrastructure and education.
The Chinese Communist Party relentlessly pursued economic development over all else
Yes many countries have tried that, but none have had a 40 year long success story like China. It could easily be argued that in the same period the west too have had policies of economic growth, to sustain these societies. Just not as successful as China.
Let’s start with the country’s real-estate market
Yes and contrary to the financial crises where western governments protected the rich mega companies, China does the Opposite, seemingly a lot like Iceland, that during the financial crisis was among the hardest hit, but let the unprofitable institutions collapse, and was among the first to recover.
China’s largest real-estate developer, is on the brink of collapse.
Yes exactly, a company that China may be better off without. As it engages in wild speculative projects that turn sour. So maybe they are better off just letting it collapse? If it collapses, the equipment and projects will probably be split many ways, the rot removed, and the remaining good projects may continue with other contractors. It remains to be seen how China will manage this. But it’s pretty obvious that 40 years of 10% growth will create crazy markets. That may need to be rebalanced and stabilized.
The real-estate sector is the most visible sign of China’s fading star,
To be honest, this sounds to me more like wishful thinking, than what we can actually reasonably expect will happen.
I am absolutely not a fan of Xi Jinping, and his authoritarian style and recent power grab. I hope he will be replaced soon, and China can continue on a more humane inclusive and tolerant path.
No, it isn’t. China is just no longer growing at the unrealistic expectations of US economists.
-
business insider
-
They’re literally getting stronger
-
I didn’t even know China was dominating us tbh
It’s official: Click here to find out the 10 facts that Winnie the Pooh doesn’t want you to know about China
oh my god, haven’t we had enough global crises over the last 3 Years? i mean i hate china too, but we’re still dependent on their economy.
