All of the sanctions and European energy security were banked on the idea that Russian frontlines would collapse under the super Nato equipped Ukrainian counterattack and then there would be a regime change in Moscow and gas would flow again. Now Ukraine is on the backfoot, there is no change in Moscow and Russia oil still flows to Europe, but only through intermediaries and loopholes, because there really never was an short to medium term alternative for it in the way the global oil market is structured. The sanctions were actual serious sanctions and their architects thought that they would actually work, but the decisions were made on faulty assumptions of effectiveness of sanctions and the structure of Russia economy.
Super NATO equipped Ukrainians is funny, because for the most part they’ve always been under equipped. If NATO hadn’t been so reserved and gave Ukraine a blank check from the get go they would have stomped Russia. Still no F-16s, Hungary and Republicans are stonewalling efforts being authoritarian sympathizers, and now Ukrainians are starting to feel ammo and manpower shortages.
I’ve read elsewhere that it was down 41%, and also, you have to take any numbers that Russia publishes with a big grain of salt these days, as they are hiding most fundamental economic data from the world and the best way to get it is from other sources that try to recreate it from other data.
